russia continues to rapidly ramp up production of long-range drones such as Shahed and Gerbera, while stockpiling already enables it to carry out daily attacks involving about 1,400 UAVs of various types.
In our previous analysis of whether russia is able to maintain this pace, we had already compiled data on its use of Shaheds, decoys, and other drones in the first 4.5 months of 2026.
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New data has now been released by Ukraine's Defense Intelligence regarding russian plans to produce long-range drones in 2026. According to the data, russia plans to manufacture 110,000 long-range UAVs, including Shahed-type drones, decoys, and others. Of the total, 60,000 are strike drones.
Based on these figures and known statistics, and taking into account the gradual increase in production, the outlook for 2026 is as follows:
- January: 4,400, average daily rate – 142;
- February: 5,000, average daily rate – 179;
- March: 6,100, average daily rate – 197;
- April: 7,200, average daily rate – 240;
- FORECAST:
- May: 8,000, average daily rate – 258;
- June: 8,900, average daily rate – 297;
- July: 9,600, average daily rate – 310;
- August: 10,300, average daily rate – 332;
- September: 11,200, average daily rate – 373;
- October: 12,100, average daily rate – 390;
- November: 13,000, average daily rate – 433;
- December: 14,100, average daily rate – 455.
russian planning typically relies on approximate figures, and the projected plan appears to assume steady monthly growth in long-range strike drone production of about 1,000 units, with a possible exception during the summer months due to seasonal factors. A smoother schedule is as follows:
In other words, by the end of 2026, assuming linear growth, russia will produce an average of around 450 long-range drones per day, including decoys and other variants. In January–February 2027, if russia carries out its plans, it will be able to produce 500 units per day.
Based on the known ratio, approximately 55% will be Shahed-type strike drones, while the rest will serve as decoys. This means that by early fall, the enemy plans to produce about 200 Shaheds per day, increasing to 250 per day by the end of the year. By building up its stockpiles, this will enable russia to carry out attacks using 1,000 drones per day, including about 550 Shaheds. However, such attacks will not occur every day. They will be preceded by a period of reduced activity.
It should be noted that, according to Ukraine's Defense Intelligence, russia planned to produce 79,000 long-range drones in 2025, of which approximately 46,000 were Shahed-type, with the remainder being decoys. In other words, the enemy planned to increase production by about 40% over the course of the year.
From the Defense Express side, we urges you to join a fundraising for what is already working: One United Fundraiser: Fundraising by the Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation for interceptor drones.
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