The Air Force of Ukraine may eventually operate not only Swedish Gripens but also French Rafale fighters. As officially announced, the plan for 100 aircraft, which entails tens of billions of euros in procurement and lifecycle costs, includes "the possibility of technology transfer and joint aircraft production with localization in Ukraine."
Any real "possibility" and its scope will become clear only after a firm contract is signed, since everything remains declarative at this stage. Still, it is already possible to assess what level of localized Rafale fighters production by Dassault might realistically be considered.
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To date, there is only one instance in which France has agreed to transfer Rafale-related technologies and production abroad. This occurred in the summer of 2025, when Dassault Aviation reached an agreement with India's Tata Advanced Systems to manufacture Rafale components in India.
This arrangement became possible because India has been a major customer for the fighter. The first batch of 36 aircraft was ordered in 2016 for €7.87 billion and delivered in 2022. It was followed this year by an order for 26 carrier-based Rafale-M fighters worth €6.6 billion, alongside India's broader Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat initiatives, which require local defense production.
Under the agreement, India will establish a new production facility to manufacture Rafale fuselage sections: the entire rear, center, and forward fuselage segments, as well as the lateral structures of the rear fuselage. In other words, almost everything except the wings and the horizontal and vertical stabilizers. Production is scheduled to begin in 2028 with a planned output of two fuselage sets per month.
In addition, in 2024 Dassault established Dassault Aviation MRO India to conduct maintenance of Mirage 2000 fighters and later the Rafale—on Indian territory. Earlier, in 2017, Dassault Aviation and Reliance Group created a joint venture, Dassault Reliance Aerospace Ltd, to build a new facility. Since 2018, it has been producing components for Falcon business jets, and during the Paris Air Show it was announced that the plant will now begin assembling Falcons as well.
France's consistent industrial cooperation with India has also been a major factor in New Delhi's ongoing MRFA (Multi Role Fighter Aircraft) tender for 114 fighters, underway since 2018. Based on available information, India is likely to bypass the competition involving the Gripen, F-21, and Su-57, and instead purchase additional Rafales.
Although Rafale fighters have also been purchased by Qatar, the UAE, Egypt, Greece, Croatia, Serbia, and Indonesia, none of these countries received production localization. Even India, despite the scale of its orders, has not been granted final assembly rights. Moreover, Indian officials have publicly complained that France does not permit integration of Indian weapons onto the Rafale, and New Delhi has threatened to pursue a technical workaround to address this.
For Dassault, however, there are no realistic scenarios for fulfilling all current and expected orders within acceptable timelines without expanding localized production. As of October 2025, with a planned annual output of 25 aircraft, the firm order book stood at 233 Rafales. Additional expected orders from Indonesia, India, and Ukraine could add roughly 230 more. France has already mentioned a target of delivering all 100 Rafales to Ukraine by 2035.
This is why Dassault also plans a significant production expansion in France itself. A program is already underway to increase output to 36 aircraft per year. To support this, Dassault Aviation has opened new industrial facilities for the first time since the 1970s. In Cergy, north of Paris, construction began in 2019 on a plant for assembling fuselage sections and manufacturing certain Rafale components. The facility became operational only in September 2025.
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