Since 2018, the Indian Air Force has been slowly processing a tender for 114 fighters under the MRFA (Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft) program. However, instead of holding a competitive process, the deal could end with the purchase of additional French Rafale fighters from Dassault.
This would leave several contenders out of the multi-billion-dollar deal: Saab with the Gripen, Boeing with the F-15EX, Lockheed Martin with its India-specific F-16 Block 70 variant dubbed F-21, the European Eurofighter, and even russian attempts to sell the Su-57 to India.
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According to the Times of India, citing its own sources, the decision to skip the tender is justified pragmatically. With the retirement of the last MiG-21s, the number of combat squadrons in the Indian Air Force will drop from 31 to a record low of 29.
At the same time, India’s defense requirement to counter Pakistan and China is estimated at 42.5 squadrons — a number expected to rise as Islamabad seeks to strengthen its air force with an additional 40 low-observable J-35As, a variant of the American F-35. In this situation, holding a tender is seen as a waste of scarce time compared to choosing a proven and effective aircraft.
From the Defense Express perspective, it is difficult to call India’s "Sindur" operation — which featured the largest modern aerial battle involving over 130 aircraft — a clear success for New Delhi. India suffered losses, including at least one confirmed Rafale, the very first single-seat aircraft delivered with the serial number BS-001. According to more conservative Pakistani claims, five Indian aircraft were shot down, including Su-30MKIs and MiG-29s. Objectively, India still needs to replenish its losses.
Of course, one can debate which is better — Gripen or F-16, F-15EX or Eurofighter — but India has been equipping its air force with French Rafales since 2016, initially ordering 36 fighters for €7.8 billion. In April 2025, India ordered 26 carrier-capable Rafale-M for €6.6 billion. This means that infrastructure, armament, and pilot and technician training programs are already in place for these aircraft.
Moreover, the localization process has already begun — Indian company Tata will assemble fighter fuselages. Although some aspects have caused friction, with Delhi reportedly pressuring Dassault to provide the Rafale’s source code, this issue applies to any aircraft manufacturer.
Thus, choosing the French fighter is genuinely pragmatic — and it carries a potential advantage for Ukraine.
For Ukraine, acquiring Rafales from France is realistically out of reach. Each aircraft costs €225 million, and at current production rates, delivery would take up to nine years. This is why Dassault Aviation has focused on broad localization of production in India.
Saab made a similar offer with its Gripen. In 2023, the Swedish company proposed localizing 96 of the 114 aircraft in India and establishing a scientific-industrial center for independent modernization, maintenance, and support.
If Saab wins the Indian contract, its production capacity would be fully occupied for a significant period, making it much harder for Ukraine to acquire new Gripen fighters. Especially considering that the Gripen has recently entered the South American market, with firm orders expected from Colombia and Peru. Notably, Thailand also placed its first foreign order since 2014, buying four JAS-39 Gripen E/F amid tensions with Cambodia.
India’s potential order of F-16s, under the India-specific F-21 designation, could further delay the queue for this American fighter. Current orders are expected to be fulfilled by 2028, and the F-21 price is reportedly higher than the F-35, as seen with the Philippine contract.
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