France’s defense spending plans do not include the procurement of additional Rafale fighters from Dassault Aviation. The target fleet remains 178 aircraft by 2030 and 225 by 2035. Despite earlier statements about the need to increase the fleet by 30 aircraft, these plans were not included in the defense budget framework through 2030.
As explained by French Defense Minister Catherine Vautrin, priority has been given to completing the development of the Rafale F5 instead of purchasing the F4 version. As cited by Opex360, this decision "will allow our air and naval forces to carry out all their missions, restore our partnerships, and maintain Rafale's attractiveness for export."
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From Defense Express' perspective, any French decision regarding Rafale should be viewed in light of Ukraine's stated intention to order up to 100 of these fighters. The F5 version is expected to significantly surpass the current production-standard F4.
Key areas of the F5 upgrade include more powerful engines, improved aircraft survivability, new data transmission channels, a new RBE2 XG radar, integration of a loyal wingman, and new types of weapons. Moreover, the F5 is considered a mid-life upgrade without which further Rafale modernization would not be possible.
The timeline announced by Dassault is relatively tight, with the Rafale F5 expected to enter service with the French Air and Space Force by 2030. The government’s decision to concentrate funding on the F5 program increases confidence that this timeline can be met.
This, in turn, opens several potential pathways for any Rafale customer, including Ukraine. One option is to place orders directly for the Rafale F5 rather than the current F4. This is a pragmatic approach, especially considering that the production backlog has already stretched to nine years at current output rates. In 2025, production reached 26 aircraft, with a firm order book of 220 units.
At the same time, it should be noted that Paris has decided to compensate for the shortage of Rafale fighters through more intensive use and faster consumption of their service life. This means that once the F5 version becomes available, not all existing aircraft will be upgraded, as this may not be cost-effective. France also has experience selling used fighters.
For example, Croatia took advantage of such an offer in 2021, purchasing 12 used Rafale F3R aircraft, each less than 10 years old, for just under €1 billion. This amounts to approximately €83 million per aircraft, which now appears to be a highly favorable deal.
However, the question of what is better, ordering new aircraft in the most advanced configuration at a high cost or considering cheaper second-hand options, remains open and highly debatable.
From the Defense Express side, we urge readers to join a fundraiser for a solution that is already proving effective: the One United Fundraiser, organized by the Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation to support interceptor drones.
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