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​Can Aegis Ashore in Poland Protect Ukraine from Long-Range Ballistic Missiles?

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​Can Aegis Ashore in Poland Protect Ukraine from Long-Range Ballistic Missiles?

The United States has deployed the Aegis Ashore missile defense system in Europe, which is designed to counter intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles

On November 13 this year, a missile defense base was officially opened near the Polish village of Redzikowo. We are talking about the Aegis Ashore system. Its opening marks only the beginning of achieving full combat readiness, as it was commissioned in 2023 and re-opened in July this year.

The question arises as to whether this missile defense system can protect Ukraine from russian attacks with intermediate- and intercontinental-range ballistic missiles.

Read more: ​The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine: russia Launched the ICBM from its New Kedr Missile System
Can Aegis Ashore in Poland Protect Ukraine from Long-Range Ballistic Missiles?, Defense Express
AN/SPY-1 radar

The Aegis Ashore is a land-based part of the Arleigh Burke-class missile destroyer with its own Aegis combat system. The system has a similar main tool - the AN/SPY-1 radar. It is responsible for detecting, tracking, and guiding interceptors against enemy ballistic missiles.

The main means of destroying targets are SM-3 anti-ballistic missiles, which have already proven their ability to intercept targets. They are launched from Mark 41 launching systems. These missiles are responsible for kinetic target interception outside the atmosphere.

These missiles simply crash into target at speed of more than 10 km/s. It is better to do so before the separation of the warheads takes place, otherwise it is needed to destroy even more objects.

It is stated that Aegis Ashore has three sets of launchers, each consisting of eight launching silos. In total, one such system can launch up to 24 SM-3 missiles, which means to shoot down 24 targets.

Can Aegis Ashore in Poland Protect Ukraine from Long-Range Ballistic Missiles?, Defense Express
SM-3 missile

Aegis Ashore, like any missile system, has a range. There is only one official illustration of its coverage area. It shows the upper zone covered by the Aegis Ashore system in Redzikovo, which provides only limited coverage for Ukraine.

Can Aegis Ashore in Poland Protect Ukraine from Long-Range Ballistic Missiles?, Defense Express
The Aegis Ashore range / Presentation by the head of the US Missile Defense Agency at the AUSA conference

But there are two Aegis Ashore systems in Europe. The first, which has been operating since 2016, is located in the south of Romania near the village of Deveselu. It has a much more relevant coverage area for Ukraine, which extends all the way to the Caspian Sea. Moreover, it also covers the Kapustin Yar military training area, from which, on November 21, the Russians launched the RS-26 Rubezh—referred to by the Kremlin as Oreshnik—targeting the city of Dnipro.

At the same time, it is not only about the range, but also the flight trajectory of both the intermediate-range ballistic missile and the SM-3 one. Several conditions must be met for effective interception. In particular, this includes the time between launch and detection, as well as the length and height of the trajectory before the warheads separate.

Can Aegis Ashore in Poland Protect Ukraine from Long-Range Ballistic Missiles?, Defense Express
The most favorable part of the enemy missile's flight for SM-3 operation

And most importantly, the decision by the United States and NATO to expand the actual protection zone—not just the capability to intercept targets over Ukraine—and to deploy THAAD as an additional safeguard.

Earlier Defense Express reported that Shahed drone with a fragmentation warhead had struck Ukrainian city.

Read more: If russia Threatens With RS-26 Rubezh, the U.S. Must Provide SM-6 Missiles