Being a major agricultural exporter (more than 10% of all wheat, 14% of all corn and 47% of all sunflower oil in the world exports, according to USDA), Ukraine heavily relies on its southern seaports, such as ones in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Mariupol and Berdyansk.
But the naval blockade of the Black Sea by the russian fleet has deprived Ukraine of the ability to deliver its stockpiles to the global market. This is the issue currently discussed during the quadrilateral negotiations on the safe export of Ukrainian grain in Istanbul, Turkiye.
Read more: Chronicle of the Russian Federation Crimes in Ukraine (July)
The United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said he was "optimistic" regarding the outcome of the talks, Reuters reports. Ukrainian President Zelensky also confirmed there is already some "progress" in negotiations.
Dedicated to this event, Defense Express provides an analysis of how the means of warfare influence the global crises in the example of Ukraine and what are the prospects of resolving this particular situation.
Missile Attacks and Undermining of Sowing Campaign
When russia first realized it couldn’t take over the capital of Kyiv "in three days", it resorted to creating conditions for the long run, slowly hijacking Ukraine’s ability to stand in a protracted war. Knowing the importance of the agricultural sector in the Ukrainian economy, russia started to undermine the sowing campaign, which was about to begin in March 2022.
On March 14, Ukrainian Defense Intelligence published a report accusing russian military forces of intentionally jeopardizing the sowing campaign and creating a humanitarian crisis.
For that purpose, russian invaders launched strikes on stocks of Ukrainian agricultural machinery. One of the air bomb attacks hit the storage with more than 30 units of equipment. It was the first statement highlighting the far-reaching consequences of the new strategy.
The targeted strikes on warehouses, agricultural machinery parking, and engineering bases had resulted in "the most challenging sowing campaign in the history of independent Ukraine."
There were also missile attacks on grain storage facilities throughout the entire invasion, starting from the destruction of a major storage on February 25, of the storage in Rubizhne with 30,000 tons of grain in April, and several similar attacks in May. Russian armed forces even used their aged Soviet-era Kh-59 missiles to destroy one of these facilities.
The threat of an upcoming global food crisis was initially voiced out by Ukraine’s Premier Minister Denys Shmyhal in March, but it took quite a while for the rest of the world to recognize this.
Naval Blockade
Preparing for the invasion, russian federation put a lot of effort into creating a significant threat from the Black Sea to the south of Ukraine. Russian Black Sea fleet deployed at some point up to six warships, creating a possibility for cruise missile strikes and landing operations.
Even after the flagship "Moskva" was destroyed by Ukrainian coastal defense, there are still three dock landing ships and three missile carriers in the northwestern part of the sea, according to the latest operational report from the Ukrainian southern command. There were also seen submarine missile carriers previously.
One of the most important roles these warships play today is the blockade of Ukraine's maritime trading. Big southern ports of Odesa and Mykolaiv are in fact disabled, and those in Mariupol and Berdyansk are occupied by russian army.
According to the World Bank estimates, the closure of Black Sea shipping from Ukraine has cut off some 90% of the country's grain exports and half of its total exports.
The problem is, Ukraine can export agricultural raw materials only through the ports of the Danube, by rail and by road, but these means of transportation lack capacity, compared with Odesa and Mykolaiv ports. As of May 7, there were nearly 25 mln tonnes of stockpiled grain, unable to be delivered to the global market.
"Russia, by weaponising food in its war against Ukraine, is solely responsible for the global food security crisis it has provoked," – statement by the Heads of States and Governments of EU countries, Brussels, June 23, 2022.
Having acknowledged the risk of famine in countries that import Ukrainian production, world leaders started working on the solution. The United States were considering the supply of powerful anti-ship missiles to Ukraine to counter russian fleet and create a "closed access zone".
The missile systems officially arrived on July 9, and it really worked – russian ships backed 100 km away from the southern coast of Ukraine, but the blockade hadn't been lifted yet. The next successful step towards the military solution to the problem was to liberate Zmiinyi (Snake) Island – a small piece of land in the northwestern part of the Black Sea russians intended to turn into an air defense outpost. The Harpoon missiles contributed to this operation too. We covered this one in detail a while ago.
The outcome of this military operation was that now the Danube – Black Sea waterway was once again open for the vessels, particularly the ones transporting agricultural products.
Despite this improvement, there is still no safe passage yet. Russian forces can still launch air raids and coastal missiles on grain vessels, so the ongoing negotiations between the UN, Ukraine, russia and Turkiye could be of utmost importance in the matter.
Looting Ukrainian Grain
Since the day russia seized the port in Berdyansk, and later in Mariupol, russia started preparations to resume maritime exports. The occupiers took the grain and steel works from Ukrainian storages to the russian cities and for third-country export.
Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba on May 24 accused russian "thieves" of stealing Ukrainian grain to sell it abroad and urged countries to "refuse such proposals" and to not buy the stolen grain.
And since most of the countries condemned the invasion of Ukraine, and the EU states even banned russian vessels from entering their ports, russian federation started delivering the grain to "friendly" ones.
According to a CNN report, russian bulk carrier "Matros Pozynich" with 30,000 tons of presumably Ukrainian grain arrived in the Syrian port of Latakia on May 27. One more accusation was directed at Turkiye for letting a Syrian cargo vessel go through Bosphorus, though Turkiye said it found no evidence that the ship carried stolen goods.
Ukrainian officials estimated that russia had appropriated 600,000 tonnes of Ukrainian grain, said Deputy Chairman of “Ukrainian Agrarian Council” Public Union Denys Marchuk, Media Center Ukraine reports.
At the same, as the new harvest is coming, Ukraine needs to free space for the new grain, and as long as the military situation remains the same, the situation is expected only to become worse for the global food market.
Accordingly, the negotiations currently held in Turkiye are aimed to establish sea corridors for the export of Ukrainian grain. Turkish Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar said a deal is expected next week. Turkiye would set up a coordination center with Ukraine, Russia and the United Nations for grain exports and ensure the safety of grain vessels in the Black Sea.
However, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the deal has not been sealed yet, though he was hopeful that a final agreement would be reached next week:
"We have seen a critical step forward. More technical work will now be needed to materialize today's progress. But the momentum is clear."
The Ukrainian delegation also noted some progress in these negotiations. Ukrainian officials appreciated the significant contribution of the UN and Turkiye to these talks. In the coming days, the President of Ukraine will discuss the details with Antonio Guterres.
What Can Be Done
Any attempt to divert the world's public attention to the issues that are implications of russia’s ongoing violations, any attempt to equate them with the root cause would only help Moscow to further use food exports as a weapon. Ukraine, in its turn, does its best to secure the country’s export potential to the largest extent possible to ensure those depending on export from Ukraine will not suffer from hunger.
Ukraine calls on the international community to condemn russia's actions, to demand the withdrawal of its troops from Ukraine and the end to the blockades of the Ukrainian ports, to strengthen economic sanctions in order to stop armed aggression against Ukraine and to prevent further humanitarian catastrophe and worsening of world hunger.
Ukraine is discussing with partners the ways to establish an international mission – a humanitarian corridor – under the auspices of the United Nations, which will take over the functioning of maritime routes for the export of Ukrainian agricultural goods.
Ukraine assumes that the unblocking of Ukrainian ports is one of the key components of global food security. Ukraine is making significant efforts to restore the supply of food to the world market. It should be done as soon as possible.
However, security remains the key issue for Ukraine. We cannot rule out russia's plans to use such a humanitarian corridor to attack Odesa and southern Ukraine.
That is why effective security guarantees are needed to restore navigation. Such guarantees should be provided by supplying Ukraine with appropriate weapons to protect the coastline from threats from the sea. The strong position of Ukraine's Armed Forces in the Black Sea region will allow to restore safe navigation and ensure national and regional security. This is a priority for Ukraine.
Regarding the actual issue of grain looting, Ukraine warns consumer countries not to buy stolen Ukrainian grain. Consignments exported by russia could contain stolen grain obtained as a result of russian occupation authorities' plundering. Ukraine will monitor every illegal shipment of grain being exported from Ukraine. Any country that knowingly purchases stolen grain is considered to be complicit in the crime.
Together we will fight hunger and we will give кussia no chance to turn food into a weapon!
Read more: Terrorist State russia Launched Missiles on Sunday: Kyiv, Mykolaiv Region and South Ukrainian NPP were Endangered
