Recently, there have appeared more forecasts and comments regarding the timing of Ukraine's victory, as well as the amount of weapons needed for this. The most competent answer should be expected from the person who obtains the most complete information about the forces and capabilities of both own forces and the enemy's. Theoretical and practical knowledge is needed in the field of military art at the operational and strategic level.
And one of these persons is General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who stated the following in "Prospects for ensuring the military campaign of 2023: the Ukrainian view" publication by "Ukrinform":
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The preparation of an offensive campaign requires the creation of one or more operational (operational-strategic) groups consisting of ten to twenty combined military brigades, depending on the plan and ambitions of the Ukrainian command."
In addition to the fact that the publication considered the scenario of the offensive campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2023. Another important aspect is that simply getting armaments is not enough. It is also necessary ensure its operation, and the units themselves to be able to use weapons effectively.
It is also clear that already existing brigades can be involved in forming these groups. But now the Defense Forces of Ukraine maintain a line of defense with a length of about 3.7 thousand km, somewhere it is the immediate areas of the battles, somewhere it is the border with the russian federation, and somewhere it is a 1000-km border with Belarus.
And the enemy still needs to be expelled from 108 thousand sq km of the territory of Ukraine occupied since 2014, which is comparable to the size of such a country as Bulgaria. That is, we are talking about getting an offensive reserve of 10-20 brigades, which must be armed.
The source of obtaining this weaponry was also indicated: "This can be done exclusively by replacing the main types of weaponry of already existing brigades with modern ones provided by Ukraine's partners." It is also necessary to add additional artillery and missile systems, air defense systems, EW complexes, control, communication, intelligence, ammunition, etc.
But for now, it would be enough to count the main staffing of 10-20 brigades. And although they are different, to simplify calculations it is possible to take a typical quantitative composition of a mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In one "typical" mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine among the main armament and military equipment:
Tanks: 31 units
BMP: 109 units
122 and 152mm artillery: 36 units
Grad MLRS: 18 units
SAM/Gun complexes of short range: 18
Such things as anti-tank weapons, mortars, engineering equipment and others can be omitted, but just for the sake of understanding, each mechanized brigade should have about 1 thousand vehicles, of which about a third belongs to the artillery regiment of the brigade.
Then it is possible to simply multiply these numbers by 10, the lower limit of the estimate of the need for brigades, or by 20, the maximum. And then it is about:
Tanks: 310-620 units
BMP: 1090-2180 units
Artillery systems: 360-720 units
MLRS: 180-360 units
SAM/ Gun complexes of short range: 180-360 units
10,000-20,000 units of motor vehicles
And compare these figures, for example, with the Bundeswehr, according to the Military Balance for 2021:
Tanks: 284
IFV, APC and other armored vehicles: 2,085
Artillery systems with MLRS, but without mortars: 162 units
Short range air defense systems: 20
And a similar situation regarding certain types of weapons in many NATO armies. And in order to transfer, for example, 620 tanks to Germany, France and Great Britain, it will be necessary to give almost all of their tanks. Because these countries obtain: 284 units of Leopard 2 tanks, 222 units of Leclerc and 227 units of Challenger 2. 733 tanks overall.
Of course, we should not forget about "russian lend-lease", and the captured and restored equipment of the russian army is a fairly significant part of the replenishment of the Ukrainian army.
Therefore, the need for 10-20 brigades may be desirable now, if we are talking about the criteria of rapid cutting strikes hundreds of kilometers deep into enemy lines.
But even apart from the direct path of increasing the quantitative indicator of forces, as the publication states, the correct vector can be a response to the remote war that russia is currently waging against Ukraine. That is, the use of long-range weapons against the russian army with the transfer of influence to its territory.
"Only in this case it is possible to discuss the influence on the real russia’s center of gravity in this war. It lies in its "remote" character (in the understanding of most russians). Thanks to this distance, the citizens of the russian federation do not perceive losses, failures, and most importantly - the cost of this war so painfully war in all its meanings".
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