The Ukrainian Air Force could soon add another 4+ generation multirole fighter to its arsenal—the Dassault Rafale. French President Emmanuel Macron announced this reinforcement for Ukraine, stating that it would consist of 16 fighter jets.
At this time, no details have been disclosed about the terms of the transfer, including whether the aircraft will be provided as military aid or sold under a commercial agreement. However, it has been announced that pilot training is set to begin in the near future. It is also worth noting that an earlier proposal called for Ukraine to purchase 100 Rafale fighter jets.
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Against this backdrop, the key question is which Rafale fighter jets Ukraine could receive. After all, France sells not only new fighter jets but also used ones. Moreover, such a short timeframe for delivering the fighter jets strongly points to this scenario.
One example is Greece, which in January 2021 purchased 18 French Rafale fighter jets—12 of which were used—for a total of €1.92 billion. A year later, Athens had already received the first aircraft.
A similar example is Croatia, which purchased 12 used Rafale jets for €1.15 billion in November 2021. The first fighter jet was delivered in October 2023, just over two years later.
By contrast, contracts for newly built Dassault aircraft take much longer to fulfill. For instance, in August 2024, Serbia ordered 12 new Rafales worth €2.7 billion, with delivery scheduled for 2028–2029. This means Serbia will have to wait four to five years before receiving the new aircraft.
Furthermore, given that Dassault's order book—at current production rates—is already projected to last 8.5 years, delivering new Rafale jets to Ukraine in just two years would only be possible by reallocating aircraft from other customers' orders.
Therefore, it appears more likely that Ukraine will receive used Rafale fighter jets rather than newly built aircraft.
Based on this, Ukraine is most likely to receive the Rafale F3R, which currently forms the backbone of the French Air and Space Force but has been replaced on the production line by the F4 standard since the early 2020s.
The differences between the variants are not that significant. The F4 introduces improved situational awareness and integration with combat information systems, enhanced protection against cyber threats, updated software for its onboard systems, the Scorpion helmet-mounted target designation system, and expanded weapons integration.
In particular, the Rafale F4 has a truly significant capability. It can fire the Meteor air-to-air missile, which can be guided in flight by another aircraft after launch. This opens up a wide range of new tactical options, allowing the launching fighter to disengage immediately after firing while another aircraft, positioned at a safer distance, provides mid-course guidance updates to the Meteor.
At the same time, the Rafale F3R is fully upgradeable to the F4 standard. In turn, the F4 is expected to evolve into the F5 standard, a major mid-life upgrade designed to support the aircraft's modernization over the coming decades.
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