On July 9, the russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) received their first batch of Su-34 bombers in 2026, manufactured at the Novosibirsk Aircraft Plant. The number of aircraft in the batch was not disclosed.
Against this backdrop, russia's Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) stated on its unofficial bmpd blog that the VKS allegedly received 16 Su-34s in 2024 and 18 more in 2025—a total of 34 aircraft over two years. According to that claim, overall Su-34 production has now reached 212 aircraft, including seven pre-production airframes.
Read more: Strike on russia's Baltimor Air Base in Voronezh Targets Su-34 Bombers Used to Launch KAB Glide Bombs
Defense Express would like to emphasize that these russian claims regarding Su-34 production rates are questionable, as they are substantially higher than previous estimates from a range of independent sources.
For example, estimates published by Poland's Defence24 in late December 2024 suggested that russia may have received 24 new combat aircraft of all types in 2024 while simultaneously losing at least 23 aircraft.
Those estimates specifically indicated that the VKS may have received 10 new Su-34s in 2022, only six in 2023, and 10 more in 2024.
An even more conservative assessment appeared in a study by the respected British think tank RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) examining the state of russian aviation after four years of full-scale war against Ukraine.
According to that study, the VKS received approximately 58–60 Su-34s during 2020–2025, implying an average delivery rate of no more than 10–12 aircraft per year.
This leaves two possible explanations:
russia's Su-34 production capacity has genuinely increased to a level significantly higher than Western estimates previously suggested.
russian sources have deliberately inflated the number of delivered Su-34s in order to exaggerate the country's military-industrial capabilities.
Defense Express previously also noted another curious development: russia appears to have had enough "surplus" Su-34s to begin deliveries to Algeria, which reportedly received the first four of 14 aircraft ordered in 2019. That development has further fueled debate over the actual scale of current Su-34 production.
Ivan Kyrychevskiy, serviceman of the 413th Raid Regiment of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine and weapons expert at Defense Express
Read more: RUSI Reveals How russia Boosted Its Su-34 and Tu-95MS Strike Power Over Four Years of War
