Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda noted that the forces of the so-called Wagner private military company gather near the belarusian city of Grodno which is located in the north-western part of the country.
The overall number of mercenaries in belarus already exceeds 4,000, while the Polish side already assessed, the figure might be close to 10,000.
Read more: Poland Revealed the Forces Currently Stationed on the Border With Belarus
The matter of concern is that Grodno is practically on the doorstep of the so-called Suwałki Gap – a route stretching for approximately 65 km along the Polish-Lithuanian border and connecting the russian Kaliningrad exclave with the satellite state of belarus.
Starting in the 2010s, NATO has been viewing a potential operation aimed at breaking through the Suwałki Gap as one of the most possible scenarios for the Kremlin's aggression. Whereas in Moscow this possibility has been openly discussed since at least the 1990s, as soon as Kaliningrad Oblast found itself cut off from the rest of the russian federation.
The Alliance is currently keeping forces of battalion level deployed in the vicinity specifically for the purpose of protecting the important route. However, these are only battalion-grade forces: as of 2022, there was a contingent of 800 US personnel plus 1,600 soldiers from Germany, Norway, and the Czech Republic combined.
We should also add brigades of the armed forces of Poland and Lithuania, as well as the whole European branch of the NATO Response Force.
The thing is, it is unlikely that russian Wagner Group troops are actually preparing for a full-scale combat engagement.
It is in Kremlin's style to escalate the situation gradually, therefore the implementation of raid tactics by the mercenaries, both in Poland and Lithuania is much more plausible here. Moreover, the Suwalki Gap is the perfect place to do so because of the forests covering the territories near the Polish-Lithuanian border.
Any emerging threat near the NATO borders will naturally draw some of the Alliance' attention to the new problem, and this is what russia is trying to achieve. The Kremlin has already started trying the West's patience and measuring the reaction, as we could see from the recent episode when the Polish airspace was violated by belarusian helicopters without any consequences.
Read more: "Wagner" is Preparing For Actions in Lithuania, Poland and Actively Seeking for Recruits Among belarusians
