The so-called "Wagner PMC," currently based on belarusian territory, is actively recruiting new members. According to the contract terms, they must be prepared for the participating in military actions in NATO countries, including Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine.
This formulation was reported by the underground within the belarusian armed force to the National Resistance Center.
Read more: Wagner Mercenaries Bring Signature Chekan Armored Vehicles to belarus
Defense Express conjectured that over 3,500 mercenaries concentrated in belarus could indicate preparation for raid operations not only in Ukraine but also in NATO countries. However, Minsk frames it as "preparation of the belarusian military."
Powerful forces are being formed from these 3,500 "Wagnerites" (that includes more than 30% of the belarusian ground forces). Additionally, active recruitment is ongoing among belarusians, making it powerful military forces.
In Ukraine, preparations for such developments have been underway for a certain period of time. The possibility of belarusian army involvement in the invasion has been considered as a plausible scenario since February 2022. However, the issue of deploying such events regarding Poland and Lithuania remains uncertain.
For example, although Poland has declared reinforcement of its border with over a thousand military personnel from the 12th and 17th Mechanized Brigades, as well as additional 500 policemen, to effectively counter the raid operation that could take place across numerous border areas, this reinforcement may be insufficient.
Regarding Lithuania, its armed forces have a total strength of 23,000 personnel, of which ground forces are up to 9,000. The border with belarus spans 502 km, and with russia's Kaliningrad Oblast, it covers 227 km. It is essential to consider that significant portions of the belarusian-Lithuanian border consist of forests, highly favorable for any raid operations.
The most vulnerable area to active hostile actions is the region of Devyanishkes, which "cuts into" belarusian territory and is connected only by a narrow corridor 2.6 km wide, with the only road running along the border.
Moreover, one should not expect the Kremlin to act with an "open door" approach but rather employ a "salami tactics" strategy with a gradual escalation of hostilities. The main objective of these actions appears to be diverting NATO countries' attention and concentrating their resources on defending their own borders.
The Kremlin relies on NATO not taking any truly effective actions, as instead of invoking Article 5, only expressions of "deep concern" might resound.
As Defense Express reported it was revealed what the Belarusian Territorial Defense was armed with
Read more: What Are 3.5 K Wagnerians in Belarus For - Train Local Troops or Make Raids Across Borders to Neighboring Countries
