Japan after lengthy talks finally completely revised weapons export restrictions and now can freely supply it for export with some restrictions on lethal weapons, which can be sold only to slightly less than two dozen countries. This also opens path to possible Ukraine reinforcement, even through selling various weapons not directly but through partners.
As Ukraine's Ambassador to Japan Yurii Lutovynov told Reuters, Japan's significant weapons export softening is theoretically very big step forward and opens opportunities for conducting defense cooperation negotiations, although this question remains very delicate and requires quite cautious steps in this direction.
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For example, Japan today still maintains restrictions on supplying weapons to warring countries. However, exceptions may exist when ban is lifted if weapons supply corresponds directly to Japanese interests — and this is the loophole which, again very cautiously, Ukraine can also use.
According to Lutovynov, short-term perspective considers discussing Japanese financial assistance in creating Ukrainian analog of American Patriot surface-to-air missile system amid genuinely critical shortage primarily of PAC-3 MSE interceptor missiles, which only intensified after month of iran combat operations.
As ambassador notes, Ukraine has necessary production capacities but needs investments. At the same time, he emphasizes Ukraine is also ready to offer its services. If we combine Japanese technologies and Ukrainian experience, we will get high-class product, Lutovynov says. Also currently ongoing are negotiations regarding Japan's participation in PURL program, when American weapons are purchased for Ukraine using allies’ and partners' funds.
Moreover, separate Ukraine-Japan defense cooperation examples already exist, when Japanese Terra Drone Corporation invested in two Ukrainian companies producing anti-aircraft drones.
Regarding Patriot analog creation, for Ukraine having own surface-to-air system capable of shooting down ballistic missiles is super-relevant task already being worked on. Recently, Fire Point company — developer of Flamingo cruise missile and FP-1 and FP-2 drones — reported negotiations with European defense industry companies regarding creating new air defense system and announced plans to intercept first ballistic missile already by late 2027.
Also, BlueBird Tech company, primarily known for its Bebradrone, recently announced intention to open missile manufacturing direction — they also want to make own Patriot analog, but absence of any missile weapons creation experience hints such project will be incredibly difficult to implement, especially single-handedly.
At the same time, for Ukraine possibly optimal variant in creating Patriot SAM system should be consolidation rather than effort dispersion, and genuinely attracting external financing and possibly technological assistance. This is incredibly complex task, and only insignificant country quantity in world has succeeded in creating genuinely effective ballistic missile interceptors, especially those that proved themselves in real complex combat conditions.
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