The shortage of anti-ballistic missiles for the Patriot system potentially affects far more than Ukraine, which has been actively seeking partners to establish production of alternatives to the American PAC-3 MSE. A significant number of European countries have built their missile defense architecture around the American system and are equally dependent not only on Lockheed Martin's production capacity but on U.S. foreign policy priorities.
In Europe, the Patriot in the PAC-3 configuration is currently operated by the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Sweden, and Romania. Switzerland ordered the system in 2022 but is now facing uncertainty over delivery timelines and has launched formal procedures to explore alternative solutions. Spain ordered four Patriot PAC-3 batteries in 2024, though current relations between Madrid and Washington have grown deeply strained over Spain's position on the war against iran and its refusal to allow American bases on its territory to be used for those operations.
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This means as many as seven European countries could have a genuine stake in pursuing a parallel or even alternative solution to reduce their dependence on the United States for missile defense. All of them with the exception of Switzerland are broadly open to defense cooperation with Ukraine and have provided it with substantial support.
None of them, however, has any domestic missile defense development to speak of. Germany has a national air defense manufacturer in Diehl Defence, known for its IRIS-T family, but even the most capable variant the long-range SLX currently in development has not yet declared a ballistic missile intercept capability. Sweden and Poland also produce air defense systems, but these are the RBS 70 man-portable launcher and the Perun short-range system respectively. Spain and the Netherlands have strong manufacturers of electronic systems but not of missiles.
More to the point, the Netherlands, Germany, Poland, Sweden, Romania, and Spain are not raising the question of Patriot alternatives or parallel solutions at all. On the contrary, they have made enormous investments in the American system. The Netherlands, for instance, ordered an additional Patriot battery in April of this year despite the missile shortage, U.S. threats regarding NATO, and all associated risks. Romania ordered a single battery with just two launchers in May 2025 to compensate for the one transferred to support Ukraine.
Poland and Germany have invested far more. In 2023, Warsaw ordered an additional six doubled-strength batteries effectively 12 fire units for approximately $13.3 billion. Germany, which has also been steadily adding Patriot capacity, is set to begin production of PAC-2 GEM-T missiles at the COMLOG facility this September missiles that cannot boast confirmed effectiveness against ballistic threats. €250 million has been invested in building out that facility, with a further approximately €4.7 billion earmarked for the production of 1,000 of these missiles for European Patriot operators.
These countries have placed very large bets on Patriot. Any serious proposal to explore additional or alternative missile defense solutions would therefore need to be exceptionally well argued otherwise it would read as an admission of a strategic miscalculation, and that is a risk few decision-makers would be willing to take.
This is precisely why finding potential European partners for alternative missile defense solutions even among those who should have the most direct interest in doing so is far from straightforward.
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