Ukraine and Sweden have signed a declaration of intent to procure Swedish Gripen E fighters, with plans to equip the Ukrainian Air Force with more than a hundred new aircraft. This would mark a truly historic milestone for Ukraine's military and a decisive step in rearming its fighter fleet. However, in the short term, Ukraine may also receive several used aircraft of earlier variants.
At least, that is the cautious conclusion that can be drawn from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's statement, in which he said: "We expect 150 such aircraft for Ukraine, and the first should arrive next year."
Read more: Sweden's JAS 39 Gripen Enter NATO Nuclear Drills for 1st Time, Testing High-Stakes Deterrence Skills
At the same time, Defense Express notes that a firm contract for Gripen E deliveries has not yet been signed. Given that the time frame of just over one year is extremely short for manufacturing and delivering the first aircraft, it is reasonable to assume that the agreement with Saab on supplying Swedish fighters may include a clause on the transfer of used aircraft.
Even Sweden itself officially received its first Gripen E only this year, despite placing the order back in January 2013. According to the initial plan, deliveries of 60 aircraft were to take place between 2018 and 2027. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has previously emphasized that, in the event of a contract with Ukraine, the first Gripen E fighters could be delivered within three years.
Currently, Saab's production rate at its Linköping plant stands at only 12 aircraft per year — roughly one per month. And although there are plans to localize production in other countries and gradually increase output (Saab recently confirmed it is considering establishing a new Gripen production facility in Ukraine), a rapid production ramp-up appears unlikely.
Therefore, a realistic scenario would be one in which Sweden begins transferring used JAS 39 Gripen C/D aircraft next year — as these are gradually retired from service and replaced by new Gripen E fighters entering the Swedish Air Force.
This would allow Ukraine’s combat aviation to field one or two squadrons of older, yet still highly capable, Swedish fighters even before the new Gripen E fleet arrives, and full logistical support is established.
Moreover, as early as 2024, Sweden announced that one of its defense aid packages for Ukraine included spare parts and components for the JAS 39 Gripen, sufficient to maintain up to 14 aircraft.
Earlier this year, Swedish officials also stated that they had abandoned the idea of "cannibalizing" existing Gripen C/D fighters to produce Gripen E variants — another clear signal that these older aircraft could eventually be transferred to Ukraine once phased out of Swedish service.
Of course, another possible scenario is that Gripen E deliveries to Ukraine will be prioritized, should Sweden agree to give up part of its own production slots and reach an understanding with other customers.
According to open-source data, the Swedish Air Force currently operates 96 JAS 39C/D Gripen fighters.
Earlier, Defense Express reported that Sweden allocated $160 million to enable Gripens to operate from roads and $370 million to counter drones.
Read more: 100–150 JAS 39 Gripen Fighters for Ukraine: How Much It Will Cost, How Long It Will Take, the Crucial Condition Behind the Deal
