Earlier, the Ukrainian Air Force carried out a strike against the russian military enterprise VZPP (Voronezh Semiconductor Devices Plant) in Voronezh. The facility manufactures electronic components used in the Kh-101 and R-500 cruise missile programs, as we previously reported in greater detail.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the strike was carried out using cruise missiles, although the specific type was not disclosed. This immediately sparked numerous theories and speculations online regarding what weapon may have been used to destroy the facility.
Read more: Ukraine May Already Have 930-km ERAM Cruise Missiles in Service, What Is Known So Far
The most widely discussed explanation is that the attack was conducted with the British-French Storm Shadow cruise missile, which Ukraine has repeatedly employed against military targets inside russia.
However, when Storm Shadow missiles are used, the General Staff usually identifies them explicitly. In this case, the weapon employed was not specified. This has led to speculation that another cruise missile currently in service with the Ukrainian Air Force may have been used, one whose deployment has not yet been officially acknowledged.
Among the possibilities are new U.S.-developed cruise missiles created under the ERAM program specifically for Ukraine. This theory gained traction after russian sources recently claimed to have recovered what were purportedly fragments of such a missile, suggesting that the weapon may already be in Ukrainian service and seeing operational use.
Based on the available information, Ukraine may have received the AGM-188A Rusty Dagger developed by Zone 5 Technologies under the ERAM program. The missile reportedly has a maximum range exceeding 930 km, making a strike on a target in Voronezh, located roughly 180 km from Ukraine's border, well within its capabilities.
At the same time, the extent of the damage inflicted on the VZPP facility deserves closer examination. Close-up footage indicates that the strike caused the collapse of two floors of a production building, while a substantial portion of the structure was also destroyed.
The AGM-188A Rusty Dagger is believed to carry a warhead weighing only 45 kilograms. This raises significant doubts as to whether such a relatively small warhead could have caused the observed level of destruction, including the collapse of multiple floors in an industrial building of this type.
For that reason, it appears more likely that the strike was carried out by a cruise missile equipped with a substantially larger warhead. One possible candidate is the Storm Shadow, which carries a 450-kg BROACH tandem penetrator-blast fragmentation warhead and is fully capable of inflicting this kind of structural damage.
Another possibility is that the attack involved a combination of different cruise missile types designed to overwhelm russian air defenses. In such a scenario, lower-cost AGM-188A Rusty Dagger missiles could have been used in the initial wave, followed by more powerful Storm Shadow missiles delivering the decisive strikes.
At this stage, however, all of these explanations remain speculative. The attack may have been carried out using entirely different cruise missiles. Additional information and footage from the strike itself will be needed before any firm conclusions can be drawn.
Read more: What Did VZPP Plant in Voronezh Do Before Ukrainian Cruise Missiles Struck It, and Why Does It Matter for Kh-101, R-500?
