russian invaders launched massive terrorist attacks throughout Ukraine at the end of 2023 and in early 2024. Terrorists launched the most massive strike in the history of russia-Ukraine war in terms of number of air assets on December 29, 2023. Terrorists launched combined strikes using various weapons as well as massively utilized ballistic missiles.
The KSF highlighted the most important facts in russian tactics:
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● In particular, russians use the tactic of depleting Ukrainian air defense. Due to the fact that terrorists launch a large number of high-speed missiles, Defenders of Ukraine spend a large number of anti-aircraft missiles. The most harmful attacks were made by high-speed russian missiles (the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile, the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile, anti-aircraft missiles from S-300/400 systems as well as the Kh-22 cruise missiles), as Ukraine may spend three or more antimissiles for each of targets. There were simultaneous launches of 5 or even 10 the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile.
● The KSF believes that russia's goal is to wear and physically destroy Ukrainian air defense down. The fact, that occupiers also launched several Kh-31P anti-radar missiles during each massive attack in recent weeks was unnoticed. This is a special weapon for destroying radar-based air defense systems (from tactical Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled system to the MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air missile system), which is difficult to shoot down due to its supersonic speed. It is not yet known whether these particular launches were effective.
● At the same time, quite a lot of high-speed missiles attacked targets beyond Kyiv. The KSF believes that this is a problem because modern missile defense systems are focused on protecting the capital of Ukraine - Kyiv. Time that it takes russian missiles to reach such cities as Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kryvyi Rih, and Dnipro is critically short (2-5 minutes). Ukrainian air defense would not have time to react even with a sufficient number of missile launchers. In addition, these areas are also attacked by slow-movingShahed kamikaze drones.
● The KSF also assures that effectiveness of russian strikes is ambiguous. Open sources reveal a dozen cases where russian missiles exploded on the ground in residential or non-developed areas, causing damage which is incommensurable to the value of missile. This can be explained either by a missile blunder or its successful interception, or by purposeful terror against civilians. In any case, the main result of russian attacks was not destruction of specific targets, but depletion of Ukrainian air defense.
Despite this huge superiority in the skies, russia is still working to accelerate modernization of its air weapon. The question is about about long-range missiles and drones, as well as occupiers` tactical means:
● The use of a large number of the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile and a still unknown type of ballistic missiles (probably North Korean).
● The Kh-101 cruise missiles now have an air defense jamming system and, presumably, a new navigation system.
● There were reports of appearance of a jet version of the Shahed kamikaze drones.
● The Lancet loitering munition as well as FPV drones allegedly already use elements of artificial intelligence.
As a result, Ukraine's militaries as well as defense industry must quickly adapt to new threats.
In its turn, Ukraine also launches air counterattacks:
● Massive drone attacks (more than 30 UAVs at a time) had hit targets in russia and occupied Crimea for the first time since summer.
● Attacks on military facilities in Belgorod Oblast by Soviet and Ukrainian MLRS missiles.
● Successful surgical strikes on Crimea as well asoccupied Donetsk Oblast with Western cruise missiles.
The KSF noted that, on the one hand, a relocation of the war to the aggressor's territory should be the main element of Ukraine's new military strategy. In particular, Western experts often talk about this. Such transfer is impossible without massive air strikes and geospatial intelligence.
On the other hand, Ukraine must significantly increase the production of its own air and anti-aircraft weapons such as attack and anti-aircraft missiles, all kinds of drones, radars as well as electronic warfare equipment. This is necessary both to hit targets on russian territory and to compensate delays in provision of Western weapons.
In particular, the spokesman for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ihnat, has recently emphasized that it was impossible to shoot down all the S-300 missiles that russians launch at Kharkiv. Instead missile launchers should be destroyed on the territory of russia (where it is still forbidden to hit with Western missiles).
Therefore, massive attacks on military targets in russia should not be a forced "response" to the shelling of Ukrainian cities, but a regular proactive tactic of Ukraine. According to the KSF, the Ukrainian government as well as the defense industry must create a sufficient, increasingly modern arsenal of weapons for such strikes.
Earlier Defense Express reported that the KSF experts had estimated that defensive strategy can be quite successful for Ukraine in war with russia.
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