Experts of the Kyiv Security Forum (KSF) discuss this, as well as they reflect on how to make Ukraine's defense strategy successful.
In particular, the experts note that the commander of the Tavria operational-strategic group, brigadier general Oleksandr Tarnavskyi confirmed the shortage of artillery shells at the frontline and announced the curtailment of some planned operations. The KSF also noted that Ukrainian activists as well as leading western media have previously written about 'shell famine' as a result of western aid reduction (as well as the lack of FPV drones).
Read more: Ukraine Needs to Increase Production of FPV Drones by Almost 67% to Produce One Million of Them by 2024
"'Shell famine' means the actual beginning of Ukraine's transition to a defense strategy in ground operations, which was previously proposed by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhnyi and one of his predecessors, retired General Viktor Muzhenko (Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2014-2019)," the experts of the Kyiv Security Forum concluded.
At the KSF it was also noted that the shortage of artillery ammunition has become a new challenge for the Defense Forces of Ukraine, after the country did not receive Western aircraft and SAM systems to gain air superiority. "The most obvious consequence may be the curtailment of the offensive in the south and in the area of Bakhmut, as the offensive requires regular artillery preparation," the experts of the Kyiv Security Forum predict, considering this information.
The experts of the Kyiv Security Forum pay attention to some elements of a new military strategy of Ukraine that is possible in these circumstances. They agree with conclusions of the military intelligence of Estonia that such strategy should be focused at russia`s depleting, not at expelling the invaders, with the obligatory establishment of sufficient volumes and rhythm of shell supplies, committing new reserves, as well as an attempt to irrevocably neutralize at least 50 thousand russian militaries every six months.
Experts also emphasize the requirements for the main elements of such strategy.
In particular, according to KSF experts, ground defense should have a new territorial nature - proactive and rational. First of all, it is possible to return to successful tactics such as a gradual retreat to positions prepared in advance as in Sievierodonetsk) and mobile warfare (as in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts in spring of 2022). At the same time, similar actions by the russians must not be allowed.
In addition, as it was noted by the KSF, that it is necessary to build fortifications and minefields in all directions. An important civilian element of defensive war should be a more organized evacuation of civilians in all aspects.
KSF experts are confident that aerial warfare retains its key importance. According to the experts` opinion, it is necessary to speed up the providing of all types of missiles and fighter aircrafts to Ukraine (not only the United States, but also France, Germany, and Sweden should be involved). The production of the weaponry in Ukraine is crucial as well. Ukrainian tactic of using FPV drones is very successful and should be developed, as well as the tactic of striking by long-range drones and converted missiles on the territory of russia. The same goes for mobile air defense fire teams.
As a conclusion, the KSF experts emphasize that the key tasks in Ukrainian rear are reformation of mobilization system and economy militarization as well as management on the basis of transparency and efficiency. "The economy must be mobilized to manufacture and purchase new weapons in a market where private business is objectively leading," the KSF concludes.
Kyiv Security Forum is Ukraine’s foremost platform for high-level international discussion about Ukrainian and global security issues. KSF was founded by the Arseniy Yatsenyuk Open Ukraine Foundation.
Earlier Defense Express reported that joint weapon production with NATO had been underway, and million FPV drones a year is realistic.
Read more: Ukraine Needs to Increase Production of FPV Drones by Almost 67% to Produce One Million of Them by 2024
