The Resolution 494 of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly held this Monday contains a few very interesting articles. The document, adopted at the assembly on November 25th, 2024, in Montréal, Canada, focuses on measures Alliance must take to "contain and counter russia’s hostile actions," urges to ensure that Ukraine becomes the 33rd member of the Alliance as soon as possible, and among other lines, quote:
"Provide Ukraine with all the means, including medium-range missiles, to defend itself and deter further aggression." The call for providing the new higher-range precision strike capability is viewed as a way to "increase the price" of cooperation between russia and North Korea in their aggression against Ukraine and a means for Ukrainian forces to defend the country from the emerging threat.
Read more: How Many Storm Shadow / SCALP Missiles the UK, France, and Others Have
The resolution also recognizes Ukraine's right to strike legitimate military objects on the aggressor's territory in line with Article 51 of the UN Charter.
It might seem like a powerful step up in NATO's rhetoric about the means necessary to help Ukraine but the practical aspect of actually supplying missiles of this class dampens the optimism about this prospect.
First of all, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly is not exactly NATO, it is not its governing or decision-making body but a separate independent organization that provides a platform for parliament members from across the Alliance to discuss the policies and call on NATO states to make specific decisions.
Nonetheless, such a public and straightforward call to action heralds changes in the policies. In November 2022, this very assembly declared the russian federation a terrorist country, and in May 2024 urged to lift restrictions on Ukraine's strikes inside russian territory.
Another issue is that there are no medium-range missiles NATO can offer except for the Tomahawk, which is operated only by the USA and the United Kingdom. The British Armed Forces have ordered a total of 214 missiles for their ships and submarines since 1995, a portion has been used in various operations. The rest of the Tomahawk arsenal lies in the United States, and even the future operators of the missile — Australia and Japan — are not part of NATO.
The U.S. is still in political turbulence caused by the change of presidential administrations and have just recently yielded to pressure and allowed strikes at 300 km inside russia, all factors making Ukraine's prospects of getting Tomahawk from Washington dim.
That leaves only France, as its navy has a very limited number of MdCN cruise missiles. This French analogue of the sea-based Tomahawk takes key design features after its direct predecessor, SCALP, yet boasts twice as high a range of 1,000 km, the warhead weight is 250 kg.
Moreover, the only NATO member in Europe with an adequate stock of missiles with over 300 km range is Turkiye. In the 1990s, Ankara committed to a very publicized cooperation with Beijing and localized the production of the B-611 ballistic missile under local name J-600T Yıldırım. This allowed the Turkish defense industry to launch a national missile program and develop the Tayfun ballistic missile with a 500+ km range, even start modernizing it to increase the range up to 1,000 kilometers.
Read more: ATACMS Strikes in russia — Check, Now Ukraine Needs To Start Talking the PrSM 500-km Missile
