The U.S. continues to concentrate its forces for a large-scale air operation against Iran, the countdown for which has already begun. At present, it seems inevitable, given the enormous costs of deploying several hundred aircraft and two carrier battle groups, along with all the support forces.
It is currently unknown what goals the White House has set for the Pentagon, but the number of forces already deployed suggests that this is unlikely to be a single Midnight Hammer–style strike with B‑2 Spirit bombers carrying GBU‑57s targeting Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow. A possible reference point could be Israel’s 12‑day Operation Rising Lion against Iran, which lasted from June 13 to June 24, 2025, and ended with a U.S. Air Force operation.
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Lessons from Operation Rising Lion also indicate how Iran may respond, which could directly and immediately affect Ukraine. This includes the potential for a deepening shortage of MSE missiles for the Patriot systems and APKWS rockets used in air defense.
Increasing shortage of Patriot missiles
It should be expected that, if the U.S. strikes Iran, Iran will respond by attempting to strike U.S. targets in the region and Israel. Even though Iranian launchers will be targeted, as demonstrated during Operation Rising Lion and the U.S. experience in Operation Desert Storm, this does not guarantee that Iranian missile strikes will be limited.
Moreover, while Iran had to use medium‑range missiles to strike Israel, tactical weapons would suffice to hit American bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. These include Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles, which were not targeted during operation by the IDF.
However, short-range missiles were used to strike the U.S. Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar. Patriot systems were used to shoot down 14 ballistic missiles of various types, using between 28 and 56 anti-missiles. However, the Americans still failed to intercept one Iranian ballistic missile.
Therefore, it can be expected that similar strikes by Iran on U.S. bases in the region will lead to the active depletion of Patriot missile stocks. This would not be just a short-term shortage, as the Pentagon will most likely dedicate all its production capacity to replenishing these stocks.
For Ukraine, this will mean that the shortage of systems to counter russian ballistic missiles will be exacerbated. At the same time, a similar trend towards reducing stocks and replenishing SM-3, SM-6, and THAAD missiles, which the U.S. will also use to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles, does not affect Ukraine due to the lack of such means at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Increasing shortage of rockets used against Shahed drones
Iran is also expected to launch long-range Shahed‑type drones. To intercept them, the U.S. Air Force is already actively using APKWS rockets from fighter jets. In June 2025, the U.S. restricted the transfer of APKWS to Ukraine, stating that "they need them more."
It should be noted that Ukraine uses APKWS not only on Vampire air defense systems but also on F‑16s, which finally received this capability in November–December 2025. The first photo showing a Ukrainian fighter jet equipped with LAU‑131 pods appeared on December 4, while the first official video was published only on February 17.
Similar 70‑mm rockets—the FZ275 from Thales Belgium—are being supplied to Ukraine. They have already proven compatible and interchangeable with the Vampire system. However, the integration of the FZ605 launcher for the FZ275, as well as their actual compatibility with the F‑16 and the AN/AAQ‑33 Sniper Advanced Targeting Pod, is currently unknown. Moreover, the shortage of APKWS will result in a reduction in the total number of rockets of this type that Ukraine could receive.
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