The average daily russian casualty rate during January 2026 was 1,023 according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting, a moderate decrease from 1,130 in December 2025. This follows four consecutive monthly increases in the average daily casualty rate from August 2025 to December 2025, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
Russia has likely sustained approximately 1,245,000 casualties (killed and wounded) since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and approximately 40,000 so far in 2026.
Read more: UK Defense Intelligence: russia Expands Legal Framework for Nationwide Internet and Phone Shutdowns
The russian Ground Forces continue to attack along multiple areas of the front line.
Territorial gains in January 2026 are likely lower than November 2025 and December 2025, which is consistent with in-year trends.
The most likely scenario for the next six months is a continuation of attritional warfare. Russian advances will remain primarily tactical, mostly in areas less well-defended by Ukrainian forces.
As Defense Express previously reported, russia has introduced a new law which requires Ukrainian children in temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory to possess a russian passport in order to travel abroad (aside from Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and temporarily occupied regions of Georgia).
The law, which reportedly took effect from January 20, 2026, applies to all children under the age of 14 within russia and the Ukrainian territories.
Read more: UK Defense Intelligence: russia Traps Ukrainian Children with Passport Law in Temporarily Occupied Territories
