Fresh report from the Rochan Consulting think tank presents an assessment of the counteroffensive campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southern part of the country, precisely, in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
The most interesting part of this report is an analysis of which units russia likely deployed to thwart Ukrainian efforts near Orikhiv and Velyka Novosilka settlements because an interesting picture unfolds there. From the looks of it, the russian military command wishes to continue relying on mixtures of its most combat-capable units supported by heavy artillery.
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Particularly, the analysts provide the following list of russian forces stationed in the first echelon of defense in the Orikhiv operational direction:
- 429th and 503rd Motor Rifle Regiments from the 19th Motor Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army; 70th Motor Rifle Regiment from the 42nd Motor Rifle Division – all three regiments from the Southern Military District;
- 114th Motor Rifle Regiment from the 127th division, 5th army; 64th Motor Rifle Brigade from the 35th army – Eastern Military District. The latter is known for the war crimes committed by its soldiers while they stayed in Bucha, during the Battle for Kyiv.
- 177th Naval Infantry Regiment from the Caspian Flotilla (infamous for war crimes during the siege of Mariupol); special forces: 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade (from Airborne Forces) and 45th Spetsnaz Brigades (under the russian GRU).
Units in the 2nd echelon:
- 291st Motor Rifle Regiment from the 42nd division; and
- 38th Motor Rifle Brigade from the 35th army – Eastern MD.
Artillery support units in the Orikhiv direction, all from the Southern MD:
- 439th Rocket Artillery Brigade – according to some sources, it operates Tornado-S multiple rocket launch systems;
- 291st Artillery Brigade – Pion and Tulpan self-propelled howitzers, Uragan MLRS;
- 292nd SPH Regiment
Operational Reserve units:
- 693rd Motor Rifle Regiment – known for taking part in the assault of Grozny in 1995;
- 69th Tank Brigade – no relevant data in the open sources.
The above-mentioned units comprise the so-called Grouping South of the russian army.
Moving next to the defense formations in the operational direction of Velyka Novosilka. The first echelon (approximately):
- 60th Motor Rifle Brigade from the 5th army, 37th Motor Rifle Brigade – Eastern MD;
- 71st Motor Rifle Regiment, 42nd Motor Rifle Division – Southern MD;
- 78th Motor Rifle Regiment, also known as Sever-Akhmat, i.e. Kadyrovites.
No information regarding the second echelon. As for artillery support:
- 50th SPH Regiment from the 42nd Motor Rifle Division – as of the beginning of the russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this unit had 36 2S19M1 self-propelled howitzers plus 17 BM-21 Grad systems; the regiment has a record of war crimes against Ukrainian people.
The military formation in this direction is called Grouping East.
Even if this list turns out to be not entirely precise, it still gives some insight into what kinds of forces are currently trying to stop Ukrainian forces from advancing further in these particular axes.
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