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​French Researchers Predict That by 2024 There May Be 1,500 to 250 Tanks Left in russian Army

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The T-72B3 tank of the russian army / Illustrative photo of pre-war times
The T-72B3 tank of the russian army / Illustrative photo of pre-war times

The French research institution Institute Action Resilience (IAR, or The Action Resilience Institute in English) has published its own assessment of the current state of the armored park of the russian army as well as the ability of the russians to manufacture new, repair old and modernize existing tanks for their troops

The main result of this study is the conclusion that by the beginning of 2024, in the framework of three different scenarios, an estimated 1,500 to 600-400 or even 250 tanks of all types, from the T-62 to the T-90M, may remain in the ranks of the russian army. This, in turn, will affect the course of russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. Such an assessment looks excessively and unexpectedly optimistic, so it is worth analyzing in more detail the thoughts of the experts of the French Institute Action Resilience.

French Researchers Predict That by 2024 There May Be 1,500 to 250 Tanks Left in russian Army, Damaged T-90M, Defense Express
Damaged T-90M "Proryv" of the russian army, which became a "donor of spare parts", July 2023 / Photo: Naalsio twitter profile

In their assumptions, IAR experts proceed from the following. In their opinion, satellite images indicate that at this time only approximately 3.1 thousand tanks of all types can remain at the storage bases of the russian army, in particular: more than 1,000 T-72 tanks, more than 700 T-62 tanks, more than 600 T-80 tanks, about 250 T-55 tanks and about 330 more vehicles, the type of which the French could not identify on satellite images.

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IAR researchers also took into account the Russians' statements that during the full-scale war against Ukraine, they increased the production of new tanks and the repair and modernization of existing tanks to 700-800 vehicles per year. Also, the French researchers took into account that here the russians could resort to prescriptions and write down in the "repair" category all the work that could be performed even in field conditions. Therefore, according to the French, the real capabilities of the russians here look like this: 10 new tanks, 205 modernized and 90-180 restored in just one year.

French Researchers Predict That by 2024 There May Be 1,500 to 250 Tanks Left in russian Army, russian T-55 shot down by the warrios of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, summer of 2023, Defense Express
russian T-55 shot down by the warrios of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, summer of 2023 / Source: Telegram channel NMFTE

It was with such initial data that the experts of the French IAR undertook to simulate three scenarios for the armored fleet of the russian army, depending on the rate of losses on the battlefield:

The first scenario - optimistic. Thanks to the success of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is possible to increase the rate of losses of the Russians to an average of 12 vehicles per day against the current 2.62 vehicles per day. The level of natural wear and tear of russian tanks is also superimposed on this. It is within the framework of this scenario that by the beginning of 2024, only 250 tanks may remain in the Russian army, while this will be a "collectible hodgepodge" of archaic T-62M and new T-90M tanks. Under such conditions, the armored units of the russian army cease to be a significant factor in hostilities against Ukraine.

French Researchers Predict That by 2024 There May Be 1,500 to 250 Tanks Left in russian Army, Echelon of new russian tanks T-90M Proryv, Defense Express
Echelon of new russian tanks T-90M "Proryv", January 2023 / Open source photo

The second scenario - weighted average. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are approaching a slightly lower rate of disposal of russian tanks per day on average, and by the beginning of 2024, the russian army should have from 400 to 600 tanks of all types, from T-62M to T-90M. This will be enough for the occupiers only to have a combat-ready tank brigade in all important directions of the front.

The third scenario - pessimistic, or "stagnant" one, in which the russians manage to maintain an acceptable pace of tank fleet renewal, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine fail to cross the average barrier of 2.62 destroyed tanks per day. In such conditions, the russian army will even be able to maintain one combat-ready tank army, which will be capable of conducting coordinated offensive actions.

French Researchers Predict That by 2024 There May Be 1,500 to 250 Tanks Left in russian Army, The T-72B3 tank in the Uralvagonzavod workshopd, Defense Express
The T-72B3 tank in the Uralvagonzavod workshop / Illustrative photo of pre-war times

It should be noted that even the implementation of the pessimistic scenario suggests a reduction in the potential of the aggressor state in terms of the number of available tanks by 25%, which is already a high indicator that could hardly have been predicted not so long ago...

French Researchers Predict That by 2024 There May Be 1,500 to 250 Tanks Left in russian Army, T-90 during exercises of the Russian army, December 2018, Defense Express
T-90 during exercises of the Russian army, December 2018, Open source illustrative photo

You can read the research directly by clicking on the link.

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