The main result of this study is the conclusion that by the beginning of 2024, in the framework of three different scenarios, an estimated 1,500 to 600-400 or even 250 tanks of all types, from the T-62 to the T-90M, may remain in the ranks of the russian army. This, in turn, will affect the course of russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. Such an assessment looks excessively and unexpectedly optimistic, so it is worth analyzing in more detail the thoughts of the experts of the French Institute Action Resilience.
In their assumptions, IAR experts proceed from the following. In their opinion, satellite images indicate that at this time only approximately 3.1 thousand tanks of all types can remain at the storage bases of the russian army, in particular: more than 1,000 T-72 tanks, more than 700 T-62 tanks, more than 600 T-80 tanks, about 250 T-55 tanks and about 330 more vehicles, the type of which the French could not identify on satellite images.
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IAR researchers also took into account the Russians' statements that during the full-scale war against Ukraine, they increased the production of new tanks and the repair and modernization of existing tanks to 700-800 vehicles per year. Also, the French researchers took into account that here the russians could resort to prescriptions and write down in the "repair" category all the work that could be performed even in field conditions. Therefore, according to the French, the real capabilities of the russians here look like this: 10 new tanks, 205 modernized and 90-180 restored in just one year.
It was with such initial data that the experts of the French IAR undertook to simulate three scenarios for the armored fleet of the russian army, depending on the rate of losses on the battlefield:
The first scenario - optimistic. Thanks to the success of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is possible to increase the rate of losses of the Russians to an average of 12 vehicles per day against the current 2.62 vehicles per day. The level of natural wear and tear of russian tanks is also superimposed on this. It is within the framework of this scenario that by the beginning of 2024, only 250 tanks may remain in the Russian army, while this will be a "collectible hodgepodge" of archaic T-62M and new T-90M tanks. Under such conditions, the armored units of the russian army cease to be a significant factor in hostilities against Ukraine.
The second scenario - weighted average. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are approaching a slightly lower rate of disposal of russian tanks per day on average, and by the beginning of 2024, the russian army should have from 400 to 600 tanks of all types, from T-62M to T-90M. This will be enough for the occupiers only to have a combat-ready tank brigade in all important directions of the front.
The third scenario - pessimistic, or "stagnant" one, in which the russians manage to maintain an acceptable pace of tank fleet renewal, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine fail to cross the average barrier of 2.62 destroyed tanks per day. In such conditions, the russian army will even be able to maintain one combat-ready tank army, which will be capable of conducting coordinated offensive actions.
It should be noted that even the implementation of the pessimistic scenario suggests a reduction in the potential of the aggressor state in terms of the number of available tanks by 25%, which is already a high indicator that could hardly have been predicted not so long ago...
You can read the research directly by clicking on the link.
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