German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that additional Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine will arrive fairly quickly. Although the timeline is measured in weeks rather than hours or days. Clearly, these systems are being sourced from deliveries originally intended for other countries, including Switzerland.
Friedrich Merz made this statement during a briefing with his British counterpart, Keir Starmer, following the signing of a new defense cooperation agreement, which confirms the countries' commitment to provide mutual assistance in the event of an attack. It should be emphasized that this in no way replaces the NATO Charter, though it does raise questions about the actual effectiveness of Article 5.
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Returning to the issue of transferring Patriot systems to Ukraine, questions remain about the timeline, which is now measured in weeks. It is not just a matter of transporting and installing, but also of training Ukrainian crews. Especially given that this involves not just a single air defense system, but a significant number of them.
It is worth noting that in late 2023, Germany introduced accelerated training programs for Patriot crews. One group of 70 personnel completed an intensive 1.5-month training schedule, six days a week, a major acceleration compared to the original course, which lasted several months. Such a training timeline is difficult to reconcile with a delivery schedule measured in weeks, especially given the limited capacity of training centers.
This could suggest that Germany was continuously training new Patriot crews, even without a clear guarantee that Ukraine would receive additional batteries. Alternatively, it is possible that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already developed the capacity to train operators for this system on their own.
Another option — the acquisition of additional air defense systems — had been agreed upon earlier, but was later revised and delayed due to the change in the U.S. administration. In other words, the required number of crews had already been trained and prepared earlier.
The most pessimistic scenario is that it will take weeks just to transport the Patriot systems to Europe, after which the training of operators will begin. This means the overall timeframe for receiving these additional air defense systems will likely extend into several months.
It is also worth noting that receiving additional Patriot systems should mean that the issue of supplying missiles for them is also being resolved positively. Any number of batteries can be delivered, but without the proper amount of ammunition, they will be useless.
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