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​KSF Reports on Backroom Negotiations Between Donald Trump, Keith Kellogg, and Vladimir Putin on Ukraine

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Illustrative image / screenshot from video
Illustrative image / screenshot from video

Kyiv Security Forum’s experts analyse how secretive talks without Ukraine raise concerns over the future of the war and peace process

Recent statements by the U.S. President Donald Trump, Keith Kellogg, and Vladimir Putin suggest ongoing behind-the-scenes negotiations regarding Ukraine, without Ukraine’s direct involvement and without a clear framework for ending the war. These developments raise serious concerns about the lack of a coordinated strategy between the U.S., Ukraine, and the EU.

DonaldTrump reaffirmed his preference for separate negotiations between the U.S. and russia, as well as between the U.S. and Ukraine, rather than a unified Western approach. There is no clarity on whether any formal contacts with russia are taking place.

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Keith Kellogg, the U.S. President’s Special Representative for Ukraine and russia, made a controversial statement suggesting that elections in Ukraine should be held after a ceasefire but before the end of the war. This aligns with Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric about the alleged illegitimacy of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and risks undermining Ukraine’s stability. Wartime elections have little historical precedent, and Keith Kellogg’s visit to Ukraine has already been postponed twice, signaling diplomatic complications.

Vladimir Putin’s latest remarks reinforce his unwillingness to negotiate a genuine peace deal. Instead, he hints at internal political factions in Ukraine that might be willing to surrender, while pushing for elections that could weaken national unity and disrupt Ukraine’s military leadership.

Given these developments, the risk of negotiations being forced under unfavorable conditions is estimated at 7 out of 10, while the likelihood of continued warfare over the next six months remains high at 9 out of 10.

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