According to Raytheon, the missiles in question are PAC-2 GEM-T interceptors. They are not designed to counter ballistic missiles such as the Iskander-M and may only become available in several years.
The contract is valued at $3.7 billion, although the exact number of missiles has not been disclosed. Based on an estimated unit cost of $6–7 million, the total could exceed 500–600 units. The final figure will depend on contract terms, which may significantly affect pricing.
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The PAC-2 GEM-T (Guidance Enhanced Missile-Tactical) is not intended to intercept ballistic targets, unlike the PAC-3 MSE, which has demonstrated the ability to shoot down even hypersonic threats such as the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal. This raises questions about Germany's choice.
A possible explanation lies in the structure of the contract. A key role in fulfilling the order will be played by the COMLOG facility in Schrobenhausen, operated jointly with MBDA Germany. This approach aims to strengthen supply chains while replenishing Ukraine’s air defense stockpiles.
At the same time, Germany is also seeking to strengthen its own industrial base involved in the project. However, there is a limitation. Although the COMLOG facility is expected to become operational in 2026, current plans indicate that the first GEM-T missiles for the Bundeswehr will only be delivered in 2028. This puts into question the timeline for deliveries to Ukraine, which has not been disclosed.
It can be assumed that initial batches for Ukraine may come from U.S. production, although this has not been officially confirmed. At present, annual production of PAC-2 missiles stands at around 240–300 units. Once fully operational, the German facility is expected to add another 180 missiles per year. Therefore, the contract for Ukraine will likely span multiple years, especially given other customers.
It is also important to note that while GEM-T missiles are not designed to intercept ballistic threats, they are capable of engaging aerodynamic targets at ranges of up to 160 km. This makes them a long-range air defense asset capable of targeting enemy aircraft, including platforms carrying guided aerial bombs.
It is worth recalling that Ukraine's Defense Forces have already used the so-called wandering Patriot tactic to successfully engage russian aircraft, including the Su-34. More broadly, such missiles would enable interception of threats at greater distances, making them a valuable addition to Ukraine's air defense capabilities.
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