Any sanctions targeting russia's shadow fleet, whether imposed or promised by European countries—particularly the United Kingdom—have little impact if left unenforced.
After London promised to seize ships, russia began escorting its tankers through the English Channel with warships. The Kremlin warned that the UK would regret following through on its promises. According to The Telegraph, London has not reacted at all, and the Kremlin appears to be openly mocking the British government.
Read more: Ukrainian Drones Strike russian Admiral Makarov Frigate, Sheskharis Terminal, and Grushovaya Base (Video)
Since the beginning of the year, 300 of russia's 700 shadow fleet tankers have passed through British waters, including 544 that London has sanctioned—among them the two escorted by the Admiral Grigorovich missile frigate. Instead of a warship, the Royal Navy deployed the RFA Tideforce military tanker.
Against this backdrop, Ukraine's next steps could be entirely logical. If the United Kingdom hesitates to enforce its sanctions on russian tankers out of fear of russian threats, Ukraine should give it the courage to act. Specifically, Ukraine should neutralize the russian military presence and its ability to escort tankers—for example, by disabling the Admiral Grigorovich itself.
Technically, this is completely possible. Ukraine has experience striking russian targets beyond the Black Sea, as demonstrated in December when the Qandil tanker was set ablaze after being hit by FPV drones. There is also the case of the Arctic Metagaz gas tanker, which mysteriously sustained a massive 40-meter-wide hole in its hull. Yet both incidents took place in the Mediterranean Sea.
It is also worth noting that Ukraine has the capability to reach russian naval bases in the Baltic Sea. A prime example of this is the russian combat icebreaker that was sunk off Vyborg, 1,000 km from Ukraine.
However, strikes against russian ships in the North Atlantic could prove critical for russia. This would prevent the russian Baltic and Northern Fleets from escorting tankers. russian officials have evaluated the likelihood of such a scenario and have already started issuing threats.
In particular, the russian state propaganda agency TASS reported that Ukrainian military personnel from the 385th Naval Unmanned Surface Vehicles Brigade had allegedly arrived in Norway to conduct exercises involving surface and submarine systems. This allegedly "directly draws Norway and the entire NATO into a military conflict with russia."
Read more: How Severely Was the Missile Frigate in Novorossiysk Damaged, Can It Still Launch Kalibr Missiles?
