Germany pledged to deliver four IRIS-T SLM medium-range air-defense batteries to Ukraine in 2025 as part of its military aid package. However, it is now becoming clear that these commitments will most likely not be fulfilled.
The assessment was made by the analyst behind German Aid in Ukraine, who cited his own sources. He noted that the third system will still be delivered this year, but the final one will not arrive before next year at the earliest.
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From Defense Express, we note that this information appears quite realistic. So far, only two systems have been delivered, and it is highly unlikely that another two will arrive before the end of 2025. The delivery timeline also supports this: the first IRIS-T SLM of the year arrived only in June, followed by another in August.
At that point, doubts already arose about whether the pledge could be met, although there was still hope due to the theoretical possibility of accelerated deliveries and the fact that Germany keeps most details of its military aid to Ukraine tightly classified.
Interestingly, in 2024 Germany initially promised to deliver three such systems in 2025. This number was later increased to four in April, accompanied by assurances from the Ministry of Defence that the plan was realistic.
However, as mentioned, the first system came quite late, and the delivery of the second was accelerated only because Estonia agreed to hand over the system originally intended for it, in exchange for receiving its own unit later. This indicates that Berlin is likely struggling to meet its commitments.
The underlying issue is likely Germanys limited production capacity both for the IRIS-T SLM system itself and for its components combined with high demand from many European countries. Although industrial capacity is being expanded, this requires time.
Meanwhile, beyond the two undelivered pledged systems, Ukraine is expected to receive an additional eight IRIS-T SLM units in the future, along with further orders for TRML-4D radars. The key question now is whether Germany will fulfill these promises which, as we can see, remains the most difficult part.
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