During a strike by Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces on Novorossiysk on April 6, 2026, the Admiral Makarov was reportedly hit. It was the last operational missile frigate in the Black Sea armed with Kalibr cruise missile systems. The strike also targeted the Sivash drilling platform.
Against this backdrop, naval analyst H I Sutton wrote for Naval News that russia's Black Sea Fleet may be forced to retreat. Among the possible options, he mentioned relocation to the Caspian Sea, describing such a move as "inevitable." This raises the question of whether russia will actually choose any retreat scenario.
Read more: Ukraine Strikes Admiral Makarov, russia's Last Kalibr-Capable Frigate in Black Sea
The publication outlines several arguments. Previously, Novorossiysk was considered a relatively safe, rock-protected harbor located 200 to 350 miles from Ukrainian territory. After withdrawing from temporarily occupied Sevastopol in the fall of 2023, the fleet relied on Novorossiysk as its primary base.
However, as Ukraine's capabilities in UAVs and naval drones have grown, strikes on Novorossiysk have become more frequent and more destructive. As a result, the russian fleet can no longer rely on this port as a secure main base and must consider alternatives.
The number of such options is limited. russia can either keep its ships maneuvering at sea, relocate them to the base in Ochamchire, or withdraw part of the fleet to the Caspian Sea. Each loss inflicted by Ukraine, a country often described as having "no navy," carries significant reputational damage for russia.
From Defense Express' perspective, these options appear logical when assessing possible next steps. However, each comes with both advantages and serious limitations.
Regarding the Ochamchire base, russia transferred a 1,670-ton auxiliary vessel there in July 2024, signaling that the harbor could theoretically host larger units of the fleet. However, this development has not progressed further.
To avoid further losses, russia has already redeployed two Project 22800 Karakurt-class corvette missile corvettes, Tucha and Amur, to the Caspian Sea. In theory, three Project 21631 Buyan-M-class corvette ships could also be transferred there. However, larger vessels such as submarines, frigates, and amphibious assault ships cannot be moved due to insufficient depth in the Volga–Don Canal, where operational depth is less than four meters.
At the same time, the option of continuous maneuvering outside Novorossiysk may also be impractical due to the vulnerability of russian ships in open waters to Ukrainian UAVs and naval drones. Therefore, it is entirely possible that russia may ultimately choose not to take any major action.
Ivan Kyrychevskyi, serviceman of the 413th Raid Regiment of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine and weapons expert at Defense Express.
Read more: Ukrainian Strike on Novorossiysk: Admiral Essen Frigate, Valentin Pikul Minesweeper, Two More russian Vessels Damaged
