The russian federation began to pump up the information space with a number of messages regarding occupied Kherson. At the same time, the newly appointed commander of the "special military operation" General Sergei Surovikin and the Gauleiters of occupied Kherson Oblast spoke with the same theses. According to them, the locals should "evacuate" from the west bank due to Ukraine’s Armed Forces offensive, the dam in Nova Kakhovka will be blown up, and Kherson will be shelled with artillery. But overall "further plans of the russian federation regarding Kherson will depend on the military-tactical situation and the adoption of difficult decisions is not excluded", as Surovikin said.
To understand, on the morning of October 19, residents of Kherson got SMS messages with the following content: "Evacuate urgently. There will be shelling of the residential quarters by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. From 07:00 buses from the river port to the east bank provided." That is, really massive concentrated actions on the displacement of the civilian population began. That is, massive actions to relocate the civilian population have begun.
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Blowing up the HPP dam in Nova Kakhovka
The most threatening is actually the information regarding the hydroelectric dam in Nova Kakhovka. The fact is that it almost does not threaten the residents of Kherson itself and the right bank, whom russia urges to "evacuate".
Because as a result of the explosion, the east bank of the Dnipro with Kherson will be flooded, but not the west bank. No one mentions the residents of Oleshky, Kardashinka and Holaa Prystan, who are really under threat.
In addition, the destruction of the HPP dam in Nova Kakhovka threatens to reduce the water level in the Kakhovka reservoir, and this already leads to a whole cascade of consequences: the threat to the Zaporizhzhya NPP cooling system, function disruption of the entire agricultural and domestic water supply in the southern regions of Ukraine, as well as the industrial water supply for the Nikopol manganese basin.
Moreover, it is not only difficult to implement the detonation of the dam with rocket or artillery strikes, but it is also unrealistic considering the structure. The only possible option is special large-caliber concrete-blasting aerial bombs weighing several tons, which are simply not available in Ukraine.
It is much easier for russia’s occupying forces to do this by installing appropriate charges in the structure itself. But the fact is that the detonation of the hydroelectric power plant will disrupt the water supply of the temporarily occupied Crimea as well.
The russian federation is preparing to leave Kherson
At the same time, the statement with "difficult decisions" regarding Kherson can already allegedly be considered as a marker of a future "gesture of goodwill", "regrouping" or "alignment of the front line" by the Kremlin, i.e. withdrawal from the occupied territories.
Under these conditions, calls for the "evacuation" of the local population are fully included in the general concept and can be directed at collaborators. The fact is that during the escape from Izium, the russians forgot all their henchmen, including the “imported” teachers. This, by the way, became one of the elements of criticism of the military leadership in russia.
Thus, "difficult decisions" may be a way of preparing for another withdrawal of the russian army, as maintaining such a bridgehead for the occupiers is difficult from the point of view of logistics and hopeless from the military point of view.
The forces transferred to the west bank are professional combat units of amphibious troops and tank formations, are now needed in other directions: holding territories in Luhansk Oblast, strengthening the southern sections of the front from Enerhodar to Volnovakha or in the Bakhmut area.
russia is preparing to hold Kherson till the end
However, the main problem is that the decision to hold or not to hold Kherson is made on the level of political decisions, but military ones. Kherson is the only regional center that russia was able to capture since February 24. Its loss will be another defeat, which is extremely difficult for the Kremlin to explain after the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the eastern part of Kharkiv Oblast.
At the same time, the so-called "evacuation" can serve a different purpose: the actual forced deportation of the population would allow the authorities to save resources for maintaining the territory. With a further plan to turn the city into a fortress, expecting to bind significant forces Ukraine’s army in the most difficult battles in the city.
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