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​Poland Pledges New Military Aid to Ukraine But Only So Much It Can Give

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Polish BMP-1 IFVs / Open-source illustrative photo
Polish BMP-1 IFVs / Open-source illustrative photo

Warsaw declared it would resume supplies of military equipment to the Ukrainian forces but there's little hope for receiving more T-72 tanks, or BMP-1 IFVs, or the more so MiG-29 fighters

A new military aid package is being prepared for Ukraine, Polish Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of National Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz announced during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at the Ramstein air base January 9th, 2025.

The official did not specify its contents but the fact itself marks an important policy shift after a protracted pause in supplies from Poland's government. The state of the national military, however, raises questions if the renewed provisions will be as diverse and substantial as they were before.

Read more: ​What Is Known About Transfer of M-84 Tanks Promised by Croatia to Ukraine in October 2024
Polish-supplied T-72MR1 of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fielded in the Bakhmut operational axis, published October 23, 2022 / Defense Express / Poland Pledges New Military Aid to Ukraine But Only So Much It Can Give
Polish-supplied T-72MR1 of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fielded in the Bakhmut operational axis, published October 23, 2022 / Archive photo credit: Ukraine Weapons Tracker via open sources

As reported by Polish media website Defence24, defense minister Kosiniak-Kamysz specified in a written statement that the new aid package to Ukraine will be compile in such a way that won't jeopardize Poland's own defense capabilities. In a way, it's a signal to tone down the expectations about the contents of the upcoming provision.

Although previously, Warsaw had allocated significant reserves from its military inventory, both quantitatively and qualitatively. In an independent aid summary published by Defence24 in November 2024, the publicly announced assistance includes 324 main battle tanks and 400 BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Therefore, as the journalists assume, the new package will likely mostly consist of components for the earlier transferred equipment, following suit of other European countries which have been doing exactly that quite often lately.

Still, a relatively small amount of Warsaw Pact–standard equipment may be handed as well, such as the T-72 or PT-91 Twardy tanks, BMP-1 vehicles, 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled guns, or BM-21 Grad MLRS, all supplied to Ukraine at some point in the past.

A relevant factor here is the current situation in the Polish army: the saturation of units with missile weapons and artillery is much higher there than with armored vehicles. Consequently, if Poland does transfer any new articles, it might primarily involve artillery.

PT-91 Twardy in service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, early 2024 / Defense Express / Poland Pledges New Military Aid to Ukraine But Only So Much It Can Give
PT-91 Twardy in service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, early 2024 / Photo credit: 10th Army Corps AFU

As for the MiG-29 fighter jets that remain an essential need for Ukraine, authors from Defence24 assert that such transfer is only possible in cooperation with other NATO countries so that allies ensure the necessary level of protection to the skies of Poland.

Earlier, Defense Express covered what is known about the transfer of M-84 tanks promised by Croatia to Ukraine in October 2024.

Read more: Defence24: 550 Out of 1,200 russian Aircraft Are Nearing End of Service Life