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​OSINT Estimate of Poland's Military Aid to Ukraine: Hundreds of Tanks, MiG-29 Squadron, and More

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PT-91 Twardy in service of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, winter 2024 / Photo credit: 10th Army Corps
PT-91 Twardy in service of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, winter 2024 / Photo credit: 10th Army Corps

The approximated assessment of the total amount of military aid Poland has provided to its war-torn neighbor since 2022

Warsaw has never summarized the military assistance it has sent to Ukraine officially, so Polish media Defence24 decided to conduct its own investigation based on open-source data. The authors emphasize that correct understanding of the totality of weapons, equipment, and other supplies is an important factor for the country's international standing and delve into the background of their research as well as the challenges of proper aid evaluation.

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Leaving the financial intricacies aside, here's the rundown of the Polish aid to Ukraine:

Tanks:

  • 14 Leopard 2A4
  • ~30 PT-91 Twardy
  • ~280 T-72

AFVs:

  • 400 BMP-1,
  • 50 Rosomak armored vehicles with Hitfist-30 turrets,
  • Dzik-type armored vehicles.

Artillery:

  • 54 Krab self-propelled artillery systems,
  • ~30 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled guns,
  • 35 BM-21 Grad MLRS,
  • eight Rak self-propelled mortars w/ four fire control vehicles,
  • 70 towed mortars (120mm),
  • four 2B9M automatic mortars (82mm),
  • LM-60 towed mortars (60mm),
  • spare ammunition in various calibers (122mm rockets; 122mm, 152mm, 155mm artillery shells; 60mm, 82mm, 120mm mortar shells).

Small arms:

  • RPG-76 Komar anti-tank grenade launchers,
  • Grot carbines,
  • grenades and cartridges, explosives, personal equipment for soldiers.

Air defense:

  • ZSU-23-4 Shilka self-propelled guns,
  • ZU-23-2 and S-60 towed guns,
  • Osa-AKM mobile short-range air defense systems,
  • S-125 air defense systems,
  • Piorun MANPADS,
  • spare rounds and missiles.

Aircraft

  • 14 MiG-29 fighters with compatible weapons,
  • 11 Mi-24 attack helicopters.

The authors of the analysis stress that the figures above are preliminary estimates, and they have contacted the Ministry of Defense of Poland to obtain more accurate data.

Polish MiG-29 at the 22nd airbase in Malbork, February 2023 / Defense Express / OSINT Estimate of Poland's Military Aid to Ukraine: Hundreds of Tanks, MiG-29 Squadron, and More
Polish MiG-29 at the 22nd airbase in Malbork, February 2023 / Photo credit: Defence24

Besides the military aid donated by the Polish government, Ukraine also bought equipment from Polish manufacturers in 2022–2023. Here's the list of known contracts:

AFVs:

  • 60 MT-LB utility vehicles,
  • 49 Oncilla and 19 SCAM SM T63/Dzik II armored personnel carriers,
  • one BRDM-2 reconnaissance vehicle,
  • one SKOT R-3M.

Artillery:

  • 54 Krab self-propelled guns (18 delivered in 2024),
  • 70 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled guns,
  • four BM-21 Grad MLRS,
  • 89 mortars (82mm) and 22 mortars (120mm),
  • 34 Piorun MANPADS and 39,280 S-8 rockets.
Polish S-125 Neva SK / Defense Express / OSINT Estimate of Poland's Military Aid to Ukraine: Hundreds of Tanks, MiG-29 Squadron, and More
Polish S-125 Neva SK / Open-source illustrative photo
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