According to a fresh estimate by Polish military news website Defence24, russia currently has about 1,200 combat aircraft of all types, including strategic aviation. Out of this totality, 550 are already "nearing the end of their life cycle." The russian military-industrial complex, meanwhile, is unable to keep up with producing new aircraft to replace the aging ones.
Unsurprisingly, the size of the russian military aircraft fleet is also affected by constant losses in the war against Ukraine and the generally low maintenance culture persisting in russian aviation.
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In more detail, the multitude of aircraft reportedly reaching the end of service life includes: the fleet of Su-25 attack aircraft (~160 units), Su-27 fighters (~100 aircraft of various modifications), Su-24M bombers (~270 aircraft), MiG-29 (up to 100 aircraft) and MiG-31BM interceptors (80 to 90 aircraft).
Important to note, "nearing the end of their life cycle" does not imply those would be retired right away. Analyst Michael Bohnert, in his March 2024 article for Defense News, assessed that russians would need to decommission at least 60 combat aircraft (without breakdown by type) purely due to wear and tear.
At the same time, the production rates are on the decline. For comparison: in 2022, the military-industrial complex delivered 27 new combat aircraft to the russian armed forces, down to 24 aircraft in 2023, and 23 more by the end of 2024.
Based on available data, the Polish journalists provide a review of the russian casualties in aviation. Visually confirmed in the first half of 2024 are losses of at least one Tu-22M3 bomber, two A-50 airborne radar patrol aircraft, three Su-34 attack aircraft and two Su-35 fighters, three Su-27 fighters, and two MiG-31BM interceptors.
It's noted that the Ukrainians claim to have taken down even more aircraft which remains unverified independently but may actually be the case. Especially due to successful drone attacks on russia's military air bases.
There's a separate general estimate of the russian fleet remaining in service, where particularly interesting is the data on strategic aviation that usually tends to be vague or incomplete in public data sources. Defence24 says there are about 50 Tu-95MSs, 59 Tu-22M3s and 17 Tu-160s operational.
With an average of 300 combat aircraft engaged in combat missions against Ukraine on a daily basis, all these calculations point to a simple conclusion: in the event of a full-scale conflict with NATO, russia will be able to effectively use up to 400 combat aircraft of all types. This includes a certain number of strategic bombers and around 340 to 360 tactical aircraft (Su-30, Su-34, Su-35, and Su-57).
The authors, however, do not rule out the possibility that russians will still operate expired combat aircraft with some moderate degree of intensity.
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