Recently, a picture of T-72 tanks transported east from Poland appeared on the web. To be exact, it was published by Visegrad 24 news agency, mentioning some "rumors" in Poland.
According to this unverified information, Polish authorities had discovered that 100 T-72 tanks of M1R modernization had disappeared from a storage facility near Lublin. Later, Polish military expert Jaroslaw Wolski implied this information to be true:
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"Aid for UKR comes from... NATO countries, let me put it that way. And let's leave the numbers for later," he said on Twitter. Visegrad 24 caught up on that and wished "Happy hunting Ukraine".
Although this information is nothing but "rumors" there is a process we can highlight for sure. On the 5th of April Polish Defense Ministry announced a purchase of 250 Abrams tanks for its army. According to the ministry statement, the accompanying equipment is included to the purchase, namely 26 maintenance vehicles M88A2 HERCULES and 17 bridges M1074 JOINT ASSAULT BRIDGE, as well as a training and logistics package and ammunition. The total value of the order is approximately USD 4.75 billion net.
"The Abrams tanks in the most modern SEPv3 version will be delivered to units located in the eastern part of Poland, on the Eastern flank of NATO – primarily the 18th Mechanized Division, including the 1st Armoured Brigade," the defense ministry wrote. It should be noted, that currently, according to Polsat News, divisions of the 18th Mechanized Division have Leopard and T-72 tanks, and those are to be replaced by the Abrams. The question is: where will those former tanks go after replacement?
In an interview to Radio Free Europe, Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marine colonel and senior adviser at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies said there is a possibility of a covert supply of heavy weapons to Ukraine by NATO countries:
"I think that those Polish MiG-29s [fighter jets] are going to show up someday in Ukraine. The United States sort of signaled that they're not going to make the transfer with a press conference. They're going to do it very quietly as they did with the T-72s, where they didn’t announce where they came from…. They just showed up in Ukraine."
By the T-72s supply, the expert meant not Polish but the Czech tanks. The provision of those also was not proclaimed by officials but opened to the public by Reuters on April 5 with reference to their Czech defense source.
As of the MiG-29 planes, the history of the question dates back to the first weeks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Poland and Slovakia considered the supply of these Soviet-made fighters if there is a replacement provided by the United States. But the first talks were disrupted by Russian president Putin's chilling warning he is ready to use Russia's nuclear weapons if necessary which was interpreted as a clear signal anyone who tried to help Ukraine would be a target. Though it seems Europe became more unyielding to Russian threats since then.
Slovakia’s prime minister Eduard Heger suggested on Monday, April 11, that supplying Ukraine with MiG-29 fighter jets was "back on the table", Financial Times reports. Speaking at a news conference with his Belgian counterpart, Heger said the discussions were triggered by "how Russia has behaved".
It is likely that the change of rhetorics was largely triggered by findings in Bucha: hundreds of civilian people tortured and murdered by Russian soldiers were found after the occupiers left this small city of the Kyiv region. Ukrainian officials said, the killings in Bucha were just one case out of dozens of other cities in Ukraine, flooded with atrocities Russia brought to Ukraine.
Many Ukrainian authorities, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have repeatedly asked to supply heavy weapons. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stressed that Stinger MANPADS and Javelin anti-tank rocket launchers can help to stop the Russian offensive, but these systems are not effective during the counter-offensive. Ukraine currently needs to push the invaders out of its territories and that's what the tanks, fighter jets, and other equipment are needed for.
While NATO has repeatedly denied any intentions to be involved in the war in Ukraine, its participating states recognize the importance of Ukraine being a shield from Russia in its possible efforts to go further and try to test Article 5 of the alliance. If that happens, Poland is almost definitely in danger. There have already been worrisome signals from the Russian Federation, namely the air strike on Yavoriv a mere 25 km away from the Polish border which was carried out by Russian aviation on March 13. Another strike happened in Lviv on March 26, 60 km away from the border – at the same time, US President Joe Biden was holding a speech in Warsaw in support of Ukraine.
And there is Russian propaganda backing a possible extension of military activities in other countries, not only Ukraine. A sociological survey conducted by a Ukrainian consulting company Active Group shows 86.6% of Russians tolerate and support the potential assault on the territory of the European Union, including Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and others.
That said, NATO countries are interested in this war ending in Ukraine. On the other hand, they do not intend to ignite WW3 with their active supplies of military aid. Secretary-General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg has said several times already that the alliance must not be involved in the war directly.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned on March 12 that military aid supplies might be considered "legitimate targets" for an attack by the Russian military. That makes a deadlock for both Moscow and the NATO bloc because such an attack on a convoy with arms would be considered an offense against NATO and challenge Article 5.
Considering that, some unannounced military aid supplies look like a fair compromise between the two intentions of the West: on the one hand, continue to support Ukraine in its fight against the unpredictable Russian regime, and on the other to keep status-quo and not to engage in the WW3.
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