Retired General Ben Hodges in his article for the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) states the local successes the Armed Forces of Ukraine achieve on the frontline are only an intermediate stage of the counteroffensive while they are "probing, pressing, looking for vulnerabilities to exploit" while simultaneously preparing heavy armor for the main strike.
"When we see large, armored formations join the assault, then I think we’ll know the main attack has really begun," Ben Hodges thinks.
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Here are the main points he puts forward. A classic Ukrainian armored brigade comprises at least 250 units of various automotive vehicles, including 310 battalions 31 vehicles each plus one or two mechanized infantry battalions, not to mention vehicles for logistical support and air defense systems.
Hodges estimates that Ukraine could make up 7 to 12 mechanized or tank brigades equipped with not only Western but also captured and own combat vehicles.
On that note, it would be logical to expect the Ukrainian General Staff to focus two or three such brigades on a narrow front, so when the time comes, there will be hundreds of battle machines at the same time and place. Even then, he calls to be careful with the assessments since the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will "want to keep the russians guessing about the location of the main attack for as long as possible, and they won’t be too bothered (and will probably welcome) Twitter getting it wrong."
However, he considers the offensive operation has already begun, and Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi decided to give the green light after three conditions had been met: 1) enough combat power, 2) russian first-line defenses and rear logistics degraded to a sufficient degree, and 3) weather dry enough to support the movement of heavy armor.
Indeed, russians have created echeloned and fortified defense lines stretching for 1,000 km. But its effectiveness actually depends less on the sophisticated engineering and more on the proficiency of personnel who hold this line. And Hodges believes there are reasons to doubt the fighting capabilities of russian soldiers: for one thing, the never stopping public quarrels between the leadership of russian forces is the evidence of problems and lack of cohesion on their side.
At the same time, it is important to manage and protect information properly, in which the Ukrainian General Staff "has done a superb job." The retired general's experience tells him that regardless of the advanced technologies one might use, head commanders always rely on reports from forward commanders.
In conclusion, Hodges assures we all will find out shortly about the successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. On the flip side, he has "no trust whatsoever" in any reports from the russian side. To help Ukrainians make victory closer, the expert called for providing Ukraine with ATACMS missiles for HIMARS systems that will enable them to launch 300-km strikes.
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