Recent reports from sources such as the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (DIU), the Pentagon, Kremlin insiders, and unverified information regarding the missile used in the November 21 strike on Dnipro have created confusion over its identity, leading to a proliferation of names.
To summarize:
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- Initial reports identified the missile as the RS-26 Rubezh.
- The Kremlin subsequently introduced the name Oreshnik.
- The Pentagon suggested it was a missile based on the RS-26 Rubezh but adapted for medium-range use.
- Finally, on November 22, the DIU identified the missile as part of the Kedr missile system.
Complicating matters further is the debate over whether the missile should be classified as an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) or an MRBM (Medium-Range Ballistic Missile).
Adding to the confusion is the scarcity of reliable information about weapons in this class. No confirmed images of the RS-26 Rubezh exist, let alone its derivatives. The name Oreshnik had never been mentioned before this incident, and Kedr is primarily known as a conceptual next-generation missile project, with alleged research beginning in 2023.
Development Timelines and Soviet Legacy Systems
Developing weapons of this class is a lengthy process. A notable example is the Bulava solid-fuel ICBM, designed for submarines. From the official start of development in 1998, it took seven years to achieve the first test launch in 2005. It required another five years of refinement to achieve reliable performance in 2010, totaling 12 years.
The DIU has reported that this Kedr missile was tested at the Kapustin Yar test site in October 2023 and June 2024. The November 21 strike appears to have been a conditional combat test, suggesting the missile is not entirely new but rather relies on well-established components and technologies.
The DIU also identified the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MITT) as the main developer of the Kedr system. MITT has been the leading institution for Soviet and russian solid-fuel ICBMs and MRBMs, including the Temp-S, Temp-2S, Pioneer, Topol, Yars, Bulava, and RS-26 Rubezh.
Pragmatic Design Approaches
MITT has historically used pragmatic approaches in missile development:
- The Pioneer (RSD-10) used the first and second stages of the Temp-2S.
- The unrealized 15P666 Skorost missile reportedly utilized the second and third stages of the Temp-2S or Topol.
- The Yars was developed as a modernization of the Topol, replacing its single warhead with a MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle) configuration.
- The RS-26 Rubezh likely used the first and second stages of the Yars system.
Similarly, reports suggest that Kedr is being developed as a modular system to succeed the Yars. This approach enables flexibility:
- By combining existing components from the Yars system, Kedr could be configured as an intercontinental missile, a medium-range missile with a lighter warhead capable of reaching 5,500 km, or a heavier warhead for shorter distances.
- Hypersonic glide vehicles like the Avangard, originally planned for the RS-26 Rubezh, could also be integrated into Kedr’s design.
A Unified Explanation
It is plausible that Kedr represents an evolutionary development of the Yars system. This modular design philosophy explains how Kedr, Rubezh, and Oreshnik could all be variations of the same foundational technology. The missile reportedly used in the strike on Dnipro may well have been a medium-range variant of the Kedr system.
This interpretation aligns with russia’s pattern of modernizing Soviet-era systems, a practice that dates back to the Temp-2S, Pioneer, and Skorost projects. It also reflects the Kremlin’s strategy of exaggerating its missile capabilities for psychological and strategic impact.
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