On November 21, 2024, russia targeted Ukrainian munitions factory in Dnipro with the first ever operational use of an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), codenamed Oreshnik. The IRBM is classified as having a maximum range of between 3,000-5,500 km. In this instance, the missile only travelled just over 800 km to its target, according to the UK Defense Intelligence.
Russia announced its withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty in February 2019, which banned the development and production of the IRBMs. However, the development of the Oreshnik missile almost certainly occurred before this. The system is highly likely a variant of the Rubezh RS-26 ballistic missile, which was first tested in 2011.
Read more: What Missile Hides Under the Name Kedr, and Could It Be Both Oreshnik and Rubezh?
The missile payload was observed as six groups of six warheads, for a total of 36 submunitions. These submunitions travel at hypersonic speeds (greater than Mach 5) before impact, as is typical for a missile of this class. All IRBM and intercontinental ballistic missile warheads will travel at hypersonic speeds when re-entering the atmosphere.
The use of this experimental system against Ukraine was almost certainly intended as strategic messaging following the use by Ukraine of Western missiles into russia. Russia highly likely only has a handful of the Oreshnik missiles, which are yet to enter serial production. This missile is highly likely to be far more expensive than other missiles russia is currently using against Ukraine.
Read more: What Is the Oreshnik Medium-Range Missile putin Mentioned, Why It Shouldn’t Be Taken Seriously
