As officially announced by Ukrainian Minister of Defense Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine has already reached a preliminary agreement with Sweden on the localization of production of JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighter jets. A memorandum was signed between an unnamed Ukrainian company and Sweden's Saab.
He also noted that the start of fighter jet assembly is scheduled for 2033, as well as the Ukrainian defense industry's participation will gradually expand. This also includes the production of certain parts in Ukraine.
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Therefore, Defense Express's forecast regarding the localization of these Swedish fighter jets in Ukraine has come true. Ultimately, production projects in Brazil can serve as a reference.
Given the planned start of Gripen production in Ukraine, major preparatory efforts, such as setting up production lines and training personnel, are expected to begin no later than 2030.
The first Swedish fighter jet to be manufactured in Ukraine, likely assembled from kits at the initial stage, is expected to appear between 2034 and 2035. It will not be the first Gripen E/F for the Ukrainian Air Force, as Saab will manufacture a certain number of fighter jets in Sweden, which will be delivered first.
Given a total of 150 units, the first 22–24 fighter jets are expected to be assembled by Saab. According to official Swedish sources, their delivery is expected three years after the agreement is signed.
Assuming the agreement is signed in 2026, the delivery of these aircraft, even with the planned increase in factory capacity in Linköping, Sweden, from 12 to 20 fighters and considering existing and potential orders, is expected around 2035.
The production of approximately 125 Gripen fighters in Ukraine will most likely be completed by 2045-2050. If relying only on Ukraine's final assembly capabilities, others are already showing interest in helping assemble Gripen for the Ukrainian Air Force. As a result, the Gripen E/F will continue to serve with the Ukrainian Air Force well into 2070 and beyond.
Notably, the first Gripen aircraft in Ukraine will be Swedish C/D variants. They are expected to arrive in 2026.
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