Türkiye may return the S-400 air defense systems to russia, purchased from Moscow in 2017, after the deal prompted the United States to exclude Ankara from the F-35 fighter jet program. The S-400 air defense systems were reportedly discussed by Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Turkmenistan on December 12.
This information was reported by Bloomberg, citing its own sources. While officials from the Turkish presidency and the Ministry of Defense declined to comment, the Kremlin denied that Putin and Erdogan discussed the matter during their meeting.
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However, Moscow would likely deny such claims regardless of the outcome. It appears that russia is interested in ensuring that the S-400 air defense systems in Türkiye end up in the hands of its occupying forces.
This would allow russians to strengthen their air defenses relatively quickly, especially after losing some of their assets. Moreover, earlier in September, the media reported that russia had allegedly offered to buy the S-400 air defense system from Türkiye. However, there were no official statements from russians.
In early December, it was reported that the issue with the Turkish S-400 air defense systems could be resolved within four to six months. If Ankara and Moscow are indeed in direct talks about the possible return of the systems to russia, it is likely that resolving all outstanding issues will take approximately the same amount of time.
Potential issues could arise, as Türkiye reportedly intends to recoup the billions of dollars it paid to russia for the S-400 air defense systems, which remain unused. As an option, these funds might be deducted from Ankara's oil and gas accounts.
If the parties reach an agreement, it would represent the worst-case scenario for Ukraine, including the possibility that the S-400 air defense systems could be transferred to a third party, such as India.
As of today, the position of the United States on this issue remains unknown. The United States may serve as a "safety lock" in the event that Türkiye returns the anti-aircraft missile systems to russia, potentially opposing such action.
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