Since the start of May 2023, russia has increasingly ceded the initiative in the war and is reacting to Ukrainian action rather than actively progressing towards its own aims, the UK Defense Intelligence reports.
During May 2023, russia has launched 20 nights of one-way-attack unmanned aerial vehicle and cruise missile attacks deep inside Ukraine.
Russia has had little success in its likely aims of neutralizing Ukraine’s improved air defences and destroying Ukrainian counterattack forces. On the ground, it has redeployed security forces to react to partisan attacks inside western russia.
According to the UK Defense Intelligence, operationally, russian commanders are likely attempting to generate reserve forces and position them where they believe a Ukrainian counterattack will occur.
However, this has probably been undermined by uncommitted forces instead being sent to fill gaps in the front line around Bakhmut.
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