On Friday, September 19, russian MiG-31 fighter jets staged at least two incidents against NATO member states. First, three aircraft violated Estonian airspace, remaining over its territorial waters for a full 12 minutes. Later the same day, two MiG-31s flew extremely low over Poland's Petrobaltic offshore oil platform.
That same day, russia's so-called Ministry of Defense issued an official statement flatly denying the violations. According to Moscow, the three MiG-31s were merely "conducting a planned flight from Karelia to an airfield in Kaliningrad Oblast," insisting they "did not deviate from the agreed flight path and did not violate Estonian airspace."
Read more: Two NATO F-35s Failed to Shield Estonia from russia's MiG-31s: What Is Known About Its Air Defense
Notably, the statement omitted any mention of the low-altitude flyover above Poland's oil platform. Instead, Moscow claimed that "the flight route passed over neutral waters of the Baltic Sea at a distance of more than three kilometers from the island of Vaindloo."
From the Defense Express perspective, several key nuances deserve attention. For one, some sources have described these aircraft as MiG-31K variants. However, visual identification of the MiG-31K is only possible if the aircraft is carrying Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles.
At the same time, one of the released photos shows that at least one of the MiG-31s was armed with short-range R-73 air-to-air missiles mounted under its wings. The aircraft also bore the tail number "67 Blue," which identifies it as a MiG-31BM. This particular jet was handed over in 2017, following modernization, to the 22nd Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment of the 303rd Guards Composite Aviation Division, part of the 11th Air Army of russia's Aerospace Forces.
And it is this very photo that raises at least two questions. First: why was the aircraft armed with only three missiles instead of the standard four? Second: why did the russians choose this particular loadout when conducting a deliberate provocation that violated the airspace of a NATO member state?
After all, the MiG-31 is capable of carrying the long-range R-37 air-to-air missile, designed to engage targets at distances of 200–300 km (with official claims of up to 400 km, though that is doubtful). Since 2022, the R-37 has been routinely employed by russia's Aerospace Forces in combat over Ukraine.
As of now, there is no convincing explanation for why the russians armed their aircraft this way, or why one missile was "missing," given that this was clearly a premeditated provocation. It also fits into a broader pattern of russia's repeated aggressive actions directed against NATO.
Earlier, Defense Express reported that russia cannot produce new MiG-31K aircraft for the Kinzhal missile. This makes any additional losses of the type particularly painful for the Kremlin.
Read more: russia Can’t Build New MiG-31Ks: Every Loss of Kinzhal Carrier Hits Hard
