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​How the Winter Will Impact the Ukraine’s War

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Illustrative photo: russian troops on MT-LBs and tanks / Archive photo
Illustrative photo: russian troops on MT-LBs and tanks / Archive photo

With the frosts approaching, Ukraine is preparing for the winter warfare, considering multiple scenarios

The future situation on the frontlines will largely depend on weather conditions, says Colonel Petro Chernyk, a military expert invited to have a briefing at the Military Media Center – ArmyInform.

Colonel Chernyk said if the temperatures stay around –20°C, then heavy machinery will still be able to move on the ground, and the course of hostilities will be the same.

Read more: The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Told How Ukraine’s Military Prepare for Winter Battles Against russians

"The frozen soil will have enough passability for military equipment with a weight of 6 to 40 tons. The tempo and quality of the war will be the same as now."

On the other hand, if the winter is mild, with higher temperatures, the movement of columns of heavy equipment will be restricted. According to the expert, in that case counter-battery warfare will be the primary activity for both sides.

In winter-spring 2022, weather conditions slowed down russian offensive many vehicles were abandoned once they gor stuck in soil / Photo credit: Arslon Xudosi on Twitter

"Realizing that, our allies provide Ukrainian units with such systems as American NTPQ counter-battery radars, that will allow us to exactly determine the enemy’s coordinates," he said. Petro Chernyk also pointed out COBRA conter-battery systems provided by Germany and Excalibur precision munition for 155mm artillery from the U.S.

Last winter Ukrainian army showed it can effectively repel russian offensive, now it's time to prove they can go on the offensive as effective, too / Photo: Ukrainian artillerymen firing on russian positions, March 2022 / Photo credit: 26th Artillery brigade of the AFU

Another important issue is winter equipment for the troops: power generators, warm clothing, tents, heaters, food etc. For example, British Minister of Defense Ben Wallace believes that Ukrainian soldiers must be sufficiently equipped for the season "so they are more effective on the battlefield than their poorly trained, badly prepared and ill equipped Russian counterparts, many of whom have been mobilized at short notice with little training, equipment or preparation".

Poor equipment and training of russian soldiers
Poor equipment and training of russian soldiers sometimes defies description. Especially since russian army struggles to find equipment for hundreds of thousands of mobilized troops suddenly enlisted almost a month ago / Image from russian media

Therefore, multiple countries stepped up to assist Ukraine by procuring and sending warm clothes for the soldiers: Lithuania, Spain, Germany, Canada, Estonia, and Great Britain.

According to the report from the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Maliar, all the primary needs in winter clothing are fully satisfied, with tens of thousands of thermal clothing, winter caps, boots and other warm clothes acquired over the last week, for example, 48,000 of winter jackets were delivered to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Flak jackets and helmets are also regularly delivered, a reserve stock of 210,000 vests and 100,000 helmets was created.

Read more: ​russian Mobilized Troops Received 'Demodernized' AK-12 Rifles as They Arrived in Ukraine
TAGS War