The long-awaited liberation of Kherson from russian occupiers and the liquidation of the bridgehead on the right bank significantly change the rules of the game on the southern part of the front. Namely, we are talking about the release of significant amount of forces of Ukraine’s military, who had been exerting pressure on the bridgehead, and the withdrawal of the russian army units.
That is, Ukraine got the opportunity to apply additional forces on other vectors, and russia will now try to put together combat-ready units and try to transfer them to other directions. Defense Express notes that the main factor for Ukraine and russia will be time: which of the sides will be able to attract these forces earlier.
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In addition, an important factor in the liquidation of the bridgehead is the possibility to conduct deeper damage to the positions of the russian army. Currently, it conventionally looks as follows, based on the 80km parameter.
So, now it is actually possible to establish fire control over one of the narrow estuaries connecting the temporarily occupied Crimea with continental Ukraine, which is Armyansk. The railway route to Kherson passes through that town. For russian, it is an important factor in providing the forces that will try to hold the left bank of the Dnipro.
At the same time, another railway route through Chongar, remains outside the 80km zone. It is responsible for supplying the conditional Melitopol group of the russian army from Crimea.
But in addition to logistical routes, russian bases may also be under attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Realizing this, the russian army command has already allegedly shut down the Chaplinka airbase, which reliably falls within the 80km zone.
And this means that all other bases, supply depots, rear points of permanent deployment and rembases are most likely moved beyond similar limits to the Chonar-Melitopol conditional line. As a result, almost the entire left-bank part of Kherson oblast has turned into a front-line zone for occupiers. In practice, this leads to a significant increase in the logistics shoulder and the deterioration of support for the group, and with it to a decrease in combat potential. And all this in the conditions of winter, which is approaching and will bring significant changes to the course of hostilities, due to the difficulty of the soil and unfavorable weather.
In this situation, the main issue is the strategic initiative in the South, which the Russian army command will now try to intercept with all its might. This is due to the fact that now the Armed Forces of Ukraine can choose any section of the 200km front from Vasylkivka in the Dnipro to Vuhledar in Donetsk oblast to apply the vector of efforts. And this will force Russians to work in the "fire team" mode, once again stretching their strength in the conditions of complicated logistics.
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