Defense Intelligence of Ukraine has updated the data on russian military manpower directly participating in the war against Ukraine. Currently, 514,000 personnel comprise the land force component of the russian invasion army.
The revised information was revealed by Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, in an interview with the Economist. He added that the russian army group north of Kharkiv, in particular, consists of 35,000 people, there's a plan to increase the number up to 50,000–70,000. Moreover, the russian command is expecting to create a reserve force of 15,000–20,000 troops; they will be located in the far rear and ready to deploy anywhere, once needed.
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On the part of Defense Express, the most important part of this news is how russians are trying to grow their invasion army. Almost exactly a month ago, Vadym Skibitskyi estimated the number of land force personnel at 474,000. In other words, there's an apparent increase by 40,000 over this time. Furthermore, a major part of this wave of recruits has joined ranks during this period, since older statistic from late 2023 fluctuates around 450,000 to 460,000 personnel. That makes a 54,000 to 64,000 increase in less than five months of 2024.
At the same time, the russian armed forces keep losing people on the battlefield. According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, russia lost approximately 27,000 soldiers in April alone and 84,000 in 2024. Although not statistically sound, we can conclude that russian armed forces managed to draw some 140,000 personnel into combat in Ukraine and even despite escalating losses, they steadily swell their manpower present in the hostile territories.
The numbers might be high but they echo the statements coming from russia. Specifically, Dmitry Medvedev, officially Deputy Secretary of the Security Council of russia, boasted enlistment rates of 160 recruits a day. Though worth noting, the number has significantly humbled down since fall 2023, when announced daily recruitment rates were 1,725 people.
Moreover, such figures are achieved without conducting any so-called "partial mobilizations," this coercive apparatus remains one more option for the russian military to significantly accelerate the pace of enlistment. While this tool is believed to be politically risky for the Kremlin to put to use, it is unlikely that Moscow really needs it with such high rates of formally "voluntary" recruitment.
Side note, in 2022 and partially in 2023 there was a mistaken belief that the formation of new units could be closely tied to the ability of the russian military industry to produce the necessary amount of weapons and equipment. By now it's obvious that in the absence of standard armored vehicles, the russians continue to attack even on quite literal golf carts. Notwithstanding the losses in manpower, the russian invasion contingent slowly brute-forces its way into Ukrainian territories due to the sheer overwhelming superiority in artillery assets and the ability to use of enhanced UMPK glide bombs practically at an unlimited scale.
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