China and belarus have started joint military exercises, scheduled from July 6 to 20, taking place just 40 kilometers from the Polish border. The belarusian Ministry of Defense reports that these drills will include the practice of amphibious operations, overcoming water obstacles, and urban warfare, though the number of participating troops and equipment remains undisclosed.
The very fact that these exercises are happening is rather unexpected for several reasons. To begin with, this is the first time China is conducting military drills so close to NATO borders without clearly explaining the purpose.
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Additionally, Beijing and Minsk both adopting the course for such close military cooperation, without even inviting russia as the de-facto patron of the Lukashenko's regime in belarus, is unusual and also warrants further analysis. Notably, neither belarus nor China announced these joint exercises in advance, especially on belarusian territory.
In public sources, we can find an interesting detail: China used at least one Y-20 military transport aircraft to transfer its troops to belarus. This calls for a closer look at the Chinese military transport aircraft fleet in general and its logistical capabilities.
According to The Military Balance 2023 handbook, the Chinese Air Force has 275 transport aircraft. This includes 70 Y-5s (clones of the An-2) and 41 Y-7s (clones of the An-26). Also, noteworthy, three Learjet 35A's, American multirole business jets. In other words, a significant portion of China's transport fleet consists of light aircraft.
The medium military transport fleet comprises 60 aircraft: 30 Y-8s (An-12 clones) and 30 Y-9s, which are based on the Y-8 and have an operational range of 5,800 km with a maximum payload of 30 tons or 132 troops.
The heavy transport fleet includes 50 units of the earlier mentioned Y-20 aircraft. The Y-20 can carry up to 66 tons over a distance of up to 4,400 kilometers. Additionally, the Naval Air Force has 20 Il-76 aircraft of Soviet design.
The remaining 31 aircraft out of the total 275 encompass several types of passenger jets.
The important part is, these figures highlight that China has the capability to conduct limited power demonstrations even in Europe, as seen with the current exercises in belarus. We should also recall the delivery of weapons to Serbia via Y-20 aircraft in spring 2022.
Moreover, these numbers indicate why China, in preparing for potential operations like an invasion of Taiwan, primarily focuses on naval landings, even significantly involving its civilian merchant fleet. The reliance on naval capabilities is due to the limited number of heavy transport aircraft, which would be critical in large-scale airborne operations.
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