This was noted in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts recalled that, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, russian military casualties in 2024 exceeded 420,000 personnel.
Read more: "The Fight Will Continue": Ukrainian Paratroopers Demonstrate Courage and Mastery on the Frontline
"ISW used geolocated evidence to estimate that russian forces advanced approximately 4,200 square kilometers in 2024, indicating that russian forces suffered approximately 102 casualties per square kilometer of captured Ukrainian territory," the report states.
Experts emphasize that russia's military command "prioritized efforts to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast and create a buffer zone in northern Kharkiv Oblast in 2024 but failed to achieve these objectives."
"According to Western and Ukrainian sources, in 2023 and 2024, Russia intended to seize the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts by the end of 2024. However, the slow advance of russian troops in early and mid-2024 likely forced russian military command to reevaluate its plans, focusing on the capture of Pokrovsk as the main offensive task for the remainder of 2024," ISW noted.
In December 2024, the Institute for the Study of War observed a significant slowdown in russian advances along the front. russian forces captured 593 square kilometers, averaging 18 square kilometers per day, compared to 28 square kilometers per day in November 2024.
A key feature of 2024 was that russian forces, aside from capturing several settlements such as Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove, failed to make significant breakthroughs into strategically important Ukrainian defensive nodes. ISW assessments indicate that these settlements hold limited operational significance, as their capture does not threaten Ukraine's key defensive positions.
According to ISW estimates, approximately 8,559 square kilometers of Donetsk Oblast remain under Ukrainian control, containing critical defensive positions and large cities, particularly along the so-called fortified belt. Analysts stress that, at the current pace, russian forces may need more than two years to capture this remaining territory. However, this assumption is based on the condition that their offensives remain confined to Donetsk Oblast and that they can capture large cities as quickly as small villages and open fields—a scenario that appears unlikely.
For Ukraine, maintaining resilience in key frontline sectors and halting enemy advances is vital. ISW analysts also emphasize that support from Western partners is crucial for maintaining stability on the front line in 2025. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have largely stopped russian advances near Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, though fighting continues toward Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka.
Read more: Fires in Moscow, Ryazan, Tyumen, and More Regions Cripple russian Logistics Infrastructure, with 9 Units of russian Rolling Stock Destroyed in December
