The Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal said before his visit to Germany that he hopes the West will start supplying modern Western tanks, which Ukraine now desperately needs to fight against the russian Federation.
"We expect the United States to supply us with its Abrams tanks, and from Germany we expect Leopard 2. These are modern tanks that Ukraine needs on the battlefield," Denys Shmyhal said in an interview, Deutsche Welle reports
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But when it comes to the provision of Western tanks, a certain taboo allegedly emerged, which is quite difficult to explain. The fact that there is a certain agreement not to supply tanks has been known for a long time, since approximately May. Then the existence of such an agreement was either confirmed or denied at various levels. But the outcome is – Ukraine has not yet received a single Western tank, only Soviet machines in a variety of modernization levels.
Defense Express has already dedicated a number of articles to this very topic, because in fact the problem with the supply of tanks may lie not only in the political plane. Because even the argumentation of the existence of a "taboo" looks rather dubious, since even Germany's supply of PzH-2000 self-propelled guns already somewhat removes the question of NATO's possible fear of Putin.
German Leopard 2 and "Puffed Cheeks"
At the same time, the problems with the German Leopard 2 tanks may, first of all, manifest in the situation when Germany cannot restore the tanks in its storage at an adequate pace. We can find evidence of this in the thwarted delivery of Leopard 2 to Poland, despite promises made; as well as in the extremely low pace of delivery of these tanks to the Czech Republic; and efforts to replace tanks with BMPs when it comes to fulfillment of other "ring exchange" obligations before multiple countries.
Moreover, Ukraine has already seen some "advances" in Berlin in regard to the provision of the Leopard 2, but the process has stalled, once again, because of the delivery deadlines. In particular, there was information that some 20 tanks were ready to go to Ukraine, but in 2023 only, at the rate of 2 to 3 vehicles per month.
Also, due to the unsatisfactory condition of the Leopard 2, Spain refused to receive them, this fact alone already demonstrates how impossible it is to refit them in an adequate time frame.
It makes an impression that the problems with Leopard 2 definitely do not lie in the plane of political decisions. But German officials continue to refer to the fact that some allies have not approved the supply of some specific kind of weapon before, and Germany just doesn’t want "to stand out".
This way all the speculations about the "taboo" may be just Berlin’s attempt to "puff out cheeks", which it quite oftenly does, as soon as it comes to the question of supplying Ukraine with weapons. For example, this is what Berlin's alleged refusal to supply long-range weapons looks like, while the real reason for such a decision is its absence.
Is Abrams Any Better?
Considering that, we can make a cautious assumption that Germany and the Leopard 2 are simply not the right country and the wrong tank, which can be provided to Ukraine in the foreseeable future and in sufficient quantities, despite all its advantages. However, it is a different matter when it comes to Abrams, because there are already 3,700 units of Abrams M1A1/A2 tanks in the US stockpile.
But their delivery tempo can be far from what could be described as "a lot and tomorrow". We can see it on the example of Poland, since Warsaw is to receive 116 Abrams M1A1 SA in 2023 under the "ring exchange" procedure for the vehicles it provided to Ukraine, and has additionally ordered 250 M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 tanks, which it expects in 2025.
And this, by the way, will make the Abrams the most common tank in the Polish Armed Forces, which will help in the process of future unification between the Polish and Ukrainian armed forces.
Yet even despite the logistical problems, Abrams is a more optimal choice for Ukraine. Although it will call for solving a rather large spectrum of tasks – not only to create stocks of ammunition and necessary materiel in general, train respective tankers and technicians, but also some global logistical issues. Because even when Ukraine does receive Abrams weighing more than 60 tons each, there may be problems with its delivery to the frontline – Ukraine lacks railway platforms, road trawlers and other infrastructural capacities for transporting heavy armored vehicles of NATO countries.
And only after these problems are solved, we can discuss and compare the combat characteristics of Abrams and Leopard 2, the complexity of maintaining gas turbine engines, the length of the barrels and the levels of reservation and mobility. Because everything relies on the weapons’ accessibility and at least the theoretical possibility of obtaining them in the foreseeable future in required quantities.
Read more: Polish Army Receives First Samples of American Abrams Tanks
