The russia has been stockpiling Kalibr cruise missiles, raising concerns that they could be used to target Ukraine, as indicated by Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
"Kalibr missiles have been accumulating throughout this period. They are fully ready for use," stated the head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine.
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"In the near future, I think we will see Kalibr again, given the significant depletion of Kh-101 stock. There are various regulations, documents, and decisions, etc. The enemy needed to replenish the fleet's missile stock, as it had significantly decreased at that time. They accomplished this task. That is, they are now technically ready for use. While the fleet was building up its missiles, the russian Aerospace Forces were employing Kh-101s," Budanov remarked.
Such a statement may seem somewhat discordant against the backdrop of the fact that previously the question of possible use of Kalibrs for strikes on Ukraine was not on the agenda.
The question arises as to how many Kalibr sea-based cruise missiles could the russian aggressors have accumulated by this time.
To find the answer to this question, we can rely on data regarding the number of missiles in the russian federation as of November 2023, as stated by the representative of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine Vadym Skibitskyi at that time.
In November of last year, according to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, the russians had accumulated a stockpile of 165 Kalibr SLCMs. Considering the available data at that time, the production rate of Kalibr missiles could have ranged from 20 to 35 units per month.
Based on the fact that in four months, the russian forces almost stopped using Kalibr missiles for attacks on Ukraine, it can be inferred that the enemy's stockpile of this type of cruise missile may have increased by a range of +80 units to +120 units, or to a range of 245 units to 285 units.
According to official reports from the Ukrainian Air Force, between March 21st and March 31st, 2024, russian invaders launched a total of 133 air-launched cruise missiles of the Kh-101/555/55 type at Ukraine.
Against this backdrop, it appears logical to assess that as the existing stockpile of air-launched cruise missiles is depleted, the russians may "unpack" the stock of Kalibrs.
It should be noted that the report indicating that the russian federation has begun production of the Kh-101 with two warheads, and this missile has indeed become twice as dangerous, indicates, in particular, that the adversary seeks to maximize the effect of using such cruise missiles while possibly reducing the intensity of launches.
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