The total amount of prepared russian mobs, as reported by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi, is up to 200,000 conscripts called up as part of the so-called "partial mobilization". But, of course, in addition to the manpower itself, it must be armed not just with small arms, but with armored vehicles, artillery, and even ordinary trucks.
That’s why russia is already transferring its military industrial complex to a 12-hour working day and a six-day working week. Therefore, a completely logical question is whether the country will be able to arm these additional 200,000 heads.
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Moreover, it even correlates to some extent with the total number of all russia’s ground forces as of 2021: 280 thousand (according to Military Balance), i.e. 71%. If we take the set of equipment for russia’s ground forces as of last year and adjust it by 71%, we will obtain the following numbers:
- Tanks: 2130
- Reconnaissance vehicles: 1,200
- IFVs: 3700
- APCs: 4260
- Artillery systems in caliber over 120 mm, including MLRS and mortars: 3,500
We can take the number of servicemen of the motorized rifle regiment as a guide, which is a fairly budgetary military unit in terms of weapons and military equipment. Each such regiment requires 2,100 personnel, 102 IFVs, 31 tanks, 12 howitzers, 4 Grad MLRS and up to 24 units of 120-mm mortars.
200 thousand mobs form approximately 95 such motorized rifle regiments. For this, it will be necessary to provide them with:
- Tanks: 2945
- IFVs: 9690
- Howitzers: 1,140
- Grad MLRS: 380
- 120mm mortars: 2280 units
- Tanks: 10,200
- Reconnaissance vehicles: 1,000
- IFVs: 8500
- APCs: 6,000
- Artillery systems: 7480
Now let’s find out the capacity of russia’s military industry as of 2021. According to official announcements for the past year, it was declared that russia’s armed forces would receive 500 units of armored vehicles, of which about half are new and modernized tanks.
Changing the working schedule to 12 working hours, 6 days a week (previously 8 working hours, 5 days a week) might have the increase in productivity by 1.8 times. That is, relative to all armored vehicles, the total production can be up to 900 units, of them approximately 450 will be tanks.
At this rate, if it were the production and modernization of tanks, the russian federation would need about 6 years of work to create tanks and about 20 years to produce armored vehicles. Of course, these are completely unrealistic numbers. Moreover, they do not include the workload of defense enterprises with the current tasks of repair and restoration of the equipment that is already in service and has been damaged or simply requires current repair.
Of course, it is possible to refer to the reserves of the russian army, which it had in storage as of 2021, according to Military Balance the following:
But their condition is quite well known. Usually it’s when the turret is stored separately from the armored vehicle, and trees have already grown from the hull, which is visible even on satellite images.
Of course, a certain part of them is still subject to restoration, and according to practical experience, the technological cycle of such restoration can be several months for one vehicle. According to the intelligence of NATO countries, only 3,000 tanks can be restored. A conditional similar indicator can be introduced for other armored vehicles and receive about 5,200 units of IFVs, APCs and reconnaissance vehicles, which can be restored. A total of 9,200 units, some of which have already been restored, thrown into battle and destroyed.
For comparison, according to russia’s Ministry of Defense plan, which was announced by the head of the Main Armored Directorate Shestakov, in the three-year plan for the restoration and purchase of 9 thousand units of weapons and military vehicles, this is together with cars, which logically made up the gross part.
That is, even if you plan to arm 200,000 conscripts with de-canned equipment, it will take years. And this is without taking into account the issue of the availability of spare parts, units and aggregates, etc.
Thus, it is highly doubtful that russia’s military defense industry will be able to provide 200,000 conscripts with a suitable set of equipment. But this hardly means that the Kremlin will abandon its plans. Infantry units will simply be formed with a minimum amount of armored vehicles and artillery.
Moreover, these units can literally be infantry, because the issue of obtaining 70,000 vehicles (it’s what 95 motorized rifle regiments need) is an open question.
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