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120k russians in Belarus and Another 100k Mobilized Belarusians – How Real the Threat Is

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Illustrative photo from open sources
Illustrative photo from open sources

For the Ministry of Defense of Belarus, the mobilization call of 100,000 conscripts will mean an increase in the armed forces by 2.2 times

Belarusian opposition politician Pavel Latushka, relying on his own sources, reported that Lukashenko and Putin are preparing to deploy a 120,000-strong russia’s contingent in Belarus, as well as the Ministry of Defense of Belarus is preparing for the mobilization of 100,000 conscripts.

These measures are to take place during November-February, and Lukashenko is actually already preparing for a full-scale war against Ukraine on russia’s side.

Read more: ​Russia Moves Staff and Aviation in Annexed Crimea after Several Explosions

A similar statement was spread by the Belarusian magazine "Maya Kraina Belarus", drawing a more detailed scenario. According to it, after declaring the annexation of the temporarily captured Ukrainian territories, the Russian Federation will declare martial law, which will also be declared by Minsk. After that, both countries will declare war on Ukraine.

After that, according to the plan, missile strikes on critical infrastructure should begin from the territory of Belarus, and by the end of the year a military contingent of 120,000 russian soldiers and 100,000 conscripted Belarusians will be deployed.

120k russians in Belarus and Another 100k Mobilized Belarusians – How Real the Threat Is, Defense Express, war in Ukraine, Russian-Ukrainian war
Illustrative photo from open sources

It is important that certain information already overlaps with the official information from Ukraine. In particular, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has already informed about the preparation for the deployment of an additional contingent of the russian army of the amount of 20,000. Agricultural farms are chosen as the location, and civil vehicles will be seized for military needs.

Also, additional airfields are being deployed, in particular, Lunynets and Zyabrovka near Ukraine’s border, additional means of anti-aircraft defense have been observed, the activity of the railway infrastructure in preparation for the transportation of troops. This was announced by the Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff Oleksiy Gromov.

120k russians in Belarus and Another 100k Mobilized Belarusians – How Real the Threat Is, Defense Express, war in Ukraine, Russian-Ukrainian war
Illustrative photo from open sources

At the same time, mobilization in Belarus may be more difficult than in russia. If the Kremlin was able to call up 100,000 people in just the first stage in a week, according to the estimates of the General Staff of Ukraine, and was not able to provide them with even shoes, not to mention protective equipment and regular weapons, then it is unlikely to be different in Belarus.

To understand, for the army of the russian federation, a draft for mobilization of even 100 thousand is only about 10% of the staff strength of all armed forces. But for the 45,000-strong armed forces of Belarus, a draft of 100,000 is 222% of the full-time workforce. According to the data of the National Statistical Committee of Belarus, then every 20th man of conscription age should be drafted (1.91 million men in Belarus overall).

120k russians in Belarus and Another 100k Mobilized Belarusians – How Real the Threat Is, Defense Express, war in Ukraine, Russian-Ukrainian war
Illustrative photo from open sources

Thus, the ability of Belarus to mobilize exactly 100,000 people is considered rather doubtful, as well as the ability to "collect" full-time units from them with all the necessary equipment. However, we should not underestimate the probability of any decision Lukashenko will make.

Read more: ​Two Downed Su-25 Aircraft and Almost Zero Activity of Enemy Aircraft: How the Armed Forces of Ukraine Beat russian Troops