russia is considering a renewed campaign of strikes against Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure, specifically targeting electricity transmission substations that ensure the operation of Ukrainian nuclear power plants, according to Ukraine's Defense Intelligence.
The warning was issued by the Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, which said the goal of such attacks would be to coerce Kyiv into accepting unacceptable capitulation terms to end the war.
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The focus is on high-voltage substations responsible for transmitting power from nuclear power plants into Ukraine's unified energy system. Disabling these nodes would not directly strike nuclear facilities but could effectively disconnect reactor units from the grid, causing large-scale power outages.
Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Moscow sees this approach as a way to inflict maximum civilian harm while attempting to stay below the threshold of direct attacks on nuclear plants, which would trigger severe international repercussions. The result, however, would still be catastrophic for civilians, potentially leaving millions without electricity and heating.
The Kremlin plans to intensify psychological pressure on European states and the wider West. This includes efforts to intimidate Ukraine's partners into reducing military and air defense support that enables Kyiv to repel russia's aerial attacks on energy infrastructure.
As of mid-January 2025, russian forces had reportedly conducted reconnaissance of at least ten critical energy infrastructure facilities across nine regions of Ukraine. This suggests preparatory steps rather than abstract threats, indicating that the targets have already been identified.
By destroying or disabling these substations, Moscow aims to undermine Ukraine's nuclear generation capacity indirectly, triggering cascading failures across the power grid during the winter period, when energy demand is at its highest.
Ukrainian intelligence stressed that such plans once again demonstrate the genocidal nature of russia's war against Ukraine, as the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure is intended to cause mass suffering and break public resilience rather than achieve legitimate military objectives.
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